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Wednesday, October 05, 2005

MLB Playoffs 2006

--posted by Tony Garcia on 10/05/2005

Here are the MLB Divisional playoff matchups for 2006. Unlike other major sports (NFL & NBA) baseball's playoffs create a problem in "predicting" the series. Anything can happen in a baseball series. The difference in general between a winning team and a losing team is about 1 in 7 games. If a team wins 4 of 7 games during the season they will be a 92 game winner. If a team wins 3 of 7 games during the season they will be a 69 game winner. So 8 playoff teams in baseball are generally pretty well matched AND baseball is a game of streaks.

That said, here is what I HOPE happens...because the only guarantee is that San Diego will be lucky to win one game against the might Cardinals.

The Yankees are hot right now. They actually slipped into the playoffs thanks to sudden cold streaks by the Indians and the Red Sox. They are the favorite to win according to Trade Sports. (55% chance favorites before yesterday's win.) I still am hoping for the Yankees to suffer a humiliating defeat and it would be even better if it happened in the first round.

BoSox vs ChiSox. The White Sox are the favorites (63% chance before yesterday's win). The Red Sox have been hurting in the pitching department. Even when the starters can hold up the bullpen has been shaky. Very few teams have won a pennant with fabulous hitting and shaky pitching. You at least need "OK" pitching to get through the playoffs. My hope is the White Sox just to throw a little more salt in the wounds of the cheap Twins front office. I otherwise could not care less about this series beyond the hope that the winner of this is capable of taking the Yankees out.

This is probably the most evenly matched series and possibly the best to watch of all 7 of the playoff series. I personally do not like the Braves (an old Dodger rivalry leftover) so I will be rooting for the Astros...who are 52% favorites to win.

Every once in a while baseball will offer a sure thing. This is it. St Louis had the best record in baseball...100 wins. They finished 18 games ahead of the Padres. The Padres are in only on a technicality: the division winner is required to play in the playoffs. Had the Padres been in any division besides the NL West they would have finished no better than 3rd place. In fact, there are 6 teams with better records that are not in the playoffs. The odds for the Cardinals to win the series: 90.9%. The only question here is if the Cards can sweep the Pades.

My prediction for the World Series: The Cardinals.

And finally, the TradeSports odds to win the World Series as of Wednesday morning:
White Sox....15.0%
Red Sox......10.0%


Anonymous Anonymous said...

i like the baseball analysis. please keep it up for the remainder of the playoffs

October 08, 2005  

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