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Sunday, November 06, 2005


--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/06/2005

A new feature on this blog will be the TradeSports section. TradeSports is a website where you can invest in futures. From sports to financial markets to current events there is the ability to invest in what you think will happen.

For the purpose of this blog TradeSports OTHER function is what will be featured. That other function is its predictive and advance knowledge function.

TradeSports had Howard Dean as the leading Democrat candidate for President in 2004. Then came "The Scream" and 10 minutes later the value of the "Dean as Democrat candidate" contract put him in dead last place.

TradeSports predicted the Friday before the Miers withdrawal that she would not be confirmed.

TradeSports got all 50 states correct as far as which state would go to Bush vs Kerry. It also got all but one Senate race right.

How does it work? It will give a price per contract, say 35.0. This price tells you that the market gives a 35% chance of the contracts conditions being met. If the contract is met then it cashes out at 100% ($10.00 per contract) if the conditions are not met then it cashes out at 0% ($0.00 per contract). You just read the percentages to get a prediction.

This feature of the blog will highlight various contracts and their price to help establish treands or substantial movements on events.



Blogger Douglas said...

I was wondering this weekend whether there were TradeSports contracts out on whether Scooter Libby would be convicted on none, some, or all of his indictments. I didn't know that TradeSports got all 50 states in 2004. A lot of people missed Wisconsin.

November 07, 2005  
Blogger Tony Garcia said...

Will Libby be convicted of at least one of five charges: 56.0% as of 4PM on 11/7/05

November 07, 2005  

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