Oscars predictions from TradeSports--posted by Tony Garcia on 3/05/2006
In less than a few hours the Oscars will begin. Now, I am not a big fan of the Oscars ever since Ghandi beat Tron for best costume, but I am interested in testing "the market" with regards to predicting the Oscar winners.
Brokeback Mountain - 79.0%
Capote - 2.1%
Crash - 20.0%
Goodnight and Good Luck - 2.6%
Munich - 2.7%
In my Oscars Pick 'em Pool I picked an upset with Capote so that I did not have to root for Brokeback Mountain.
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" - 90.0%
Bennett Miller, "Capote" - 4.8% (as a "rest of the field" pick)
Paul Haggis, "Crash" - 3.5%
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck" - 4.8%
Steven Spielberg, "Munich" - 4.8% (as a "rest of the field" pick)
I picked an upset with Spielberg but this time because I have little faith in the Academy going for merit and believe they will try to make a political point. Gay issues with Best Picture and terrorist sympathizing with Munich.
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents" - 1.2%
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica" - 18.1%
Keira Knightley, "Pride and Prejudice" - 2.5%
Charlize Theron, "North Country" - 2.7%
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line" - 83.3%
I did not think Witherspoon was even worthy of a nomination, but I guess the rest of the field was that bad. In the end I have a feeling that for some stupid reason Witherspoon will get the award here.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" - 88.5%
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow" - 1.8%
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain" - 6.8%
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line" - 7.5%
David Straithairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck" - 1.9%
Phoenix was worse than Witherspoon. Hoffman is simply the best actor of the five nominated. I have yet to see Hoffman do poorly. So, I am hoping the Academy rewards a fabulous actor with a Best Actor award.
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, "Syriana" - 42.0%
Matt Dillon, "Crash" - 9.7%
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man" - 42.5
Jake Gyllenhall, "Brokeback Mountain" - 12.0%
William Hurt, "A History of Violence" - 2.9%
The first "competition" according to TradeSports investors. Frankly I did not think Clooney was in a role that really called for good acting. Now I understand that the quality of films in general was down this past year and that should account for the sub-par performances being even nominated. With that said, I had picked William Hurt to win (he is a pretty good actor in general). I am hoping that if Hurt does not win then Giamatti does.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Junebug" - 15.7%
Catherine Keener, "Capote" - 6.0%
Frances McDormand, "North Country" - 4.4%
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" - 79.9%
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain" - 13.6%
I heard so much critical acclaim about Weisz from critics whose opinions I respect that I chose her in my pool.
For those of you who are going to watch the Oscars I say to you: enjoy. For the rest of us we can compare the results tomorrow.