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Thursday, October 27, 2005

Miers withdrawal was predicted on Friday

--posted by Tony Garcia on 10/27/2005

First the news (which every other blog is reporting and I thus refuse to). Harriet Miers withdrew her nomination last night.

The story I want to focus on is that TradeSports predicted this on Friday. Trade Sports is a great predictor and if you understand how to use it the site is also a great place to invest.

The "Will Miers be confirmed" contract was trading at 62 (indicating a 62% liklihood of occurring). Suddenly on Friday it dropped to 20%. Insider trading is allowed...so those who know information can drive the market like that. The sudden drop indicated something big against Miers was coming. That could be hugely damaging news, her withdrawal, something big.

The founder of TradeSports was on the Glenn Beck program on Friday and said the same thing...the drop indicated something big. He predicted that Harriet would withdraw herself on Monday.

Oh, and how am I doing on TradeSports? I'm up 50% in 3 weeks.


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