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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

2006 TradeSports election predictions

--posted by Tony Garcia on 4/05/2006

TradeSports is a futures market. People are more careful about their beliefs when real money is on the line. This site predicted the Miers nomination failing, Sadaam being captured and all but one of the Senate races in 2004, all of the states for President in 2004...you get the idea.

To see how likely an event is to occur you look at the sell price. If an event has a price of $40.0 - $60.0 that translates into a 40% - 60% chance. The market is uncertain the event is going to occur. The closer to $50.0 the more unsure the market is. From $60.0 - about $90.0 the event is considered very likely to occur. From about $10.0 - $40.0 the event is considered very unlikely to occur. From $0.0 - $10.0 the event is nearly a slam dunk to NOT happen and from $90.0 - $100.0 the event is nearly a slam dunk TO occur.

Of course, the further away from the event the lower the predictability. As it is right now in the World Series winners only 3 teams are above $10.0.

The reason I bring all of that up is so people understand the machinations behind the next presentation.

TradeSports has the chances for the DFL candidate to win the Minnesota Senate race at 63.9%. Yikes.

Maybe in the near future I will draw up a list of all of the race predictions. Which reminds me...has anyone seen or heard from Gerry Daly lately?


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