Correction of KvM Analysis
--posted by Tony Garcia on 4/28/2006
Earlier this week Gary at Kennedy v the Machine gave some analysis on the the 6th District Race that needs some redefining. I'm here to help.
Every political creature in Minnesota was just sent the results of a poll commissioned by the Knoblach for Congress campaign which commissioned a poll from the Tarrance Group to disparage the candidacy of 6th CD frontrunner Sen. Bachmann. (Sorry, Ringer. Last time I relied on your nose-counting I was confidently predicting a first ballot victory for Ron Eibensteiner last June.)There are many reasons for me to redirect the 'non-fiscal' votes of Bachmann, but that is for another post. However, this analysis of Knoblach's tactic is missing some inside information about the northwest portion of the 6th...and even some of the northern portion of the district.
Knoblach has decided to run what amounts to some expensive “push polls” that criticize Bachmann for, among other things, opposing another government-funded rail boondoggle and for allowing gas stations to make a profit. Ignorance on basic economics is, alas, a contagion that knows no party bounds.
It is clear to KvM that Mrs. Bachmann and Messrs. Krinkie and Esmay all offer much more satisfactory choices for conservatives in the most Republican district in the state. Having Mr. Knoblach on the ticket this fall would serve to suppress GOP turnout in exactly the places Republicans will have to strip mine to find their required margin of victory for constitutional and federal offices.
Northstar Rail is a HUGE issue to even the GOP members in the 6th. Especially those in St Cloud, Stearns Country and Sherburne County. If you think fighting against the Twins stadium crowd feels like a losing cause then go up to the aformentioned areas of the 6th and fight against the Northstar boondoggle. Even within the GOP there is a majority of people that WANT that thing built.
So, the two things that KvM forgot to factor in are:
1) Being pro-Northstar in roughly 1/3 - 1/2 of the district is a PLUS even amongst the GOP.
2) Being pro-spending for projects that affect a Republican directly is a plus. Principles within a party member generally go until it actually affects the member. The GOP is no different, hence the Twins stadium, rising higher ed bonding bills, Northstar demand from "fiscal conservatives" and a whole host of other things.
To an honest fiscal conservative Knoblach's push polls seem like grasping at straws. To a typical GOPer in the 6th it may play very well.
3 Comments:
You are absolutely correct on Northstar.
A sure way to test that is to try and make a resolution against the Northstar at the convention. It will go down in flames.
Actually, I think King Banian reported on an effort to remove opposition to Light Rail in the platform - and that went down - and he's in a St Cloud district.
But delegates aren't the same as Republican voters.
I think Knoblach's position on Northstar, in combination with him being a working legislator (as opposed to a media hound) will serve him well in the general election - against either opponent.
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