Supreme Court guessing

I was going to write something about my horse for the Supreme Court but Captain Ed already said it all. While Janice Rogers Brown was my choice for Chief and that position is no longer open I still support her for Associate Justice.

Captain Ed's take:

Janice Rogers Brown has just taken her place on the DC Circuit court, the same appellate bench from which Roberts served prior to his nomination. However, unlike Roberts, she served for several years on a state Supreme Court, that of the nation's most populous state, California. Her background gives her near-impeccable conservative status while presenting enough flexibility for libertarian leanings. Rather than hiding herself through judicial inscrutability, she has a long and public track record of her philosophies, and document demands will place no particular strain on the process.

But apart from all of that, a Brown nomination would put the Democrats in a very difficult position -- one which they desperately tried to avoid by filibustering her for four years. As a black female vying for the first such appointment to the Supreme Court, she would create a huge headache for all of those who assailed Bush for nominating a white male from a "privileged" background to replace Sandra Day O'Connor.

Moreover, the Senate Democrats themselves -- especially the seven which pledged not to filibuster Brown in the MOU for her appellate confirmation -- made it clear that they could live with her on the federal bench. That isn't a complete immunity from attack for a nomination to the next level, but it puts them in a tough-sell position to claim that she suddenly doesn't qualify even though they just confirmed her to the second most important federal bench in June. Even if the Gang of 14 dissolves over this issue, the GOP still wins by passing the Byrd option and eliminating the Sword of Damocles threat of filibustering on judicial nominations for the rest of Bush's term in office, a strategic loss that the Democrats will be loathe to take.

And to those who think that Bush is "politically weakened" by the left's barrage of false attacks (the latest being related to Katrina) Captain Ed says this:

Some will say that Bush lacks the political capital to push that through a recalcitrant Senate. I disagree. With the 2006 elections looming closer and the judiciary remaining one of the hot-button issues across the entire base, the Republican caucus cannot afford to push back against George Bush now. Bush has never played it safe in politics, and don't expect to see him start hedging bets now with one more election cycle to manage.

There is a reason so many in the MOB listen to Captain Ed.