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Thursday, April 06, 2006

TradeSports Senate election predictions

--posted by Tony Garcia on 4/06/2006

What is the market saying about the 2006 elections?
GOP maintains Senate control: 76.0% chance
GOP maintains House control: 56.5% chance.

Minnesota Governor: GOP Candidate to win...62.0% chance.

And the Senate races are also listed. For the sake of ease for me I am listing the state and the party predicted to win and the percentage of chance for that party winning being given by the market and then the party of the incumbent. (Bold face races are within the 'up for grabs' range of 40%-60%.)
AZ...GOP...89.0% GOP inc
CA...DEM...96.8% DEM inc
CT...DEM...94.5% DEM inc
DE...DEM...96.0% DEM inc
FL...DEM...82.0% DEM inc
HI...DEM...96.0% DEM inc
IN...GOP...96.0% GOP inc
ME...GOP...95.0% GOP inc
MD...DEM...62.9% open (DEM held)
MA...DEM...90.0% DEM inc
MI...DEM...90.0% DEM inc
MN...DEM...63.9% open (DEM held)
MS...GOP...96.0% GOP inc
MO...GOP...59.5% GOP inc
MT...DEM...55.0% GOP inc
NE...DEM...90.0% DEM inc
NV...GOP...90.0% GOP inc
NJ...DEM...62.0% DEM inc
NM...DEM...99.9% DEM inc
NY...DEM...97.0% DEM inc
ND...DEM...93.0% DEM inc
OH...GOP...53.0% GOP inc
PA...DEM...69.9% GOP inc
RI...GOP...55.0% GOP inc
TN...GOP...72.5% GOP inc
TX...GOP...96.0% GOP inc
UT...GOP...96.0% GOP inc
VT...IND...90.0% IND inc
VA...GOP...89.0% GOP inc
WA...DEM...79.8% DEM inc
WV...DEM...87.0% DEM inc
WI...DEM...90.0% DEM inc
WY...GOP...96.0% GOP inc

That makes, according to TradeSports investors right now, 13 wins for the GOP, 19 wins for the DEM and 1 for the IND. The make up of those seats is 15 GOP, 17 DEM and 1 IND.

Two things to notice. The turnover in this listing is in Montana and Pennsylvania. All of the close races are GOP held which means the worst case scenario is 10 wins for the GOP, 22 for the DEM and 1 for the IND. That would give a 50-49-1 majority for the GOP.

Note to the GOP...don't abandon your base...or you will suffer severe losses.

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