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Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Downward ticking for GOP

--posted by Tony Garcia on 7/18/2006

When it comes to investing in futures options people don't put their money on the result they hope for but they put their money on the result that they believe will gain them money. That is the concept behind TradeSports and its record is incredible. Watch the prices for movement and you will learn a ton about the event you are watching.

Tim Pawlenty was trading at roughly a 70% chance of winning...until yesterday.

He dropped down to 55% chance. Granted there is little support or resistance (for you investors you understand that) on the bid/ask, but it is telling that the race is not necessarily as safe as it previously was.

Mark Kennedy is still hovering around the 40% chance of winning mark with very little movement, very little interest and very little volume from the investors.

The Senate remaining with the GOP is bouncing around close to the 80% mark.

Control of the House seems to be a little more shaky.

As you can see from the chart the chance of the House remaining with the GOP is bouncing around between 45% and 55%. Flip a coin and you have the same chances of calling it correctly.

Now, the message for the GOP nationally will be interesting to see develop. How does a party in power run on what they will do while running from what they could not get done?

We had the MOB Evil Council 2 on Race to the Right this past weekend and the question posed to the panel was, "What do the Democrats need to do to win this November?" The answer agreed on: Say Nothing. Say as little as possible. I agree because of the dilemma the GOP is in with their base (dissatisfaction) and with the moderates (distaste with Congress).

The answers better not be "spin"...better be easily perceived as honest and genuine or they will take a bath this year.

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