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Friday, November 02, 2012

Fire The Help But Not The Senator

--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/02/2012

Remember the scandal earlier in the year where there were Secret Service agents in a sex scandal? Prostitution in a foreign country, while on duty or something?

There were people that were saying those agents should lose their jobs for it. Among those people was Sen Menendez of New Jersey.
"If the facts are true, they should all be fired. The reality is is that the secret service not only protects the president of the United States, they represent the United States of America. They were on duty. If the facts are true as we are reading in the press, they shouldn't have a job."
Fast forward to the present time. Sen Menendez now has a chance to put his principles where his mouth is. He should fire himself, if the facts are true as we are reading in the press, he shouldn't have a job.
Two women from the Dominican Republic told The Daily Caller that Democratic New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez paid them for sex earlier this year.

In interviews, the two women said they met Menendez around Easter at Casa de Campo, an expensive 7,000-acre resort in the Dominican Republic. They claimed Menendez agreed to pay them $500 for sex acts, but in the end they each received only $100.
...
When shown a photograph of Sen. Menendez, the women said they recognized him as the man with whom they’d had sexual relations at Casa de Campo this spring. Both said they were brought to the resort with the understanding they would be paid for sex.

Neither knew the identity of the man at the time. Both claimed to recognize him later as Sen. Menendez.

“He called him[self] ‘Bob,’” said one.
They could be "recognizing" a doppelganger, right?

But as we say here often, But wait, there's more.
Menendez’s 2012 public schedule shows no events listed for Easter or the following three days. Aircraft records obtained by TheDC show that Melgen’s plane left Florida the morning of Easter Sunday this year, stopped at the Teterboro private airport near Menendez’s home in New Jersey, and flew on to the Dominican Republic.

Two days later it returned to the United States from a private airport near Casa de Campo.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Menendez will find some rationalization for why he should not suffer the same fate that he demanded of the 'help'. Fire the Help for being involved in a sex scandal, per Menedez, but don't close the Senator's office...it was just a sex scandal.

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Thursday, November 09, 2006

Checking the TradeSports predictions

--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/09/2006

I began writing a series of posts (sorry, they are of the lengthy variety) analyzing what happened, why, what it means and possible paths for the next 2 years. However, I wanted to interrupt that to post a quick report about the TradeSports predictions (which King thinks I should stop using).

Sadly, this is the last election cycle that TradeSports predictive nature can be used. The GOP in Congress, on its last night before being thrown out of power, passed some "we know what is better for you than you do" legislation known as the Online Gambling Ban. As a result online poker cannot be funded through American banks or credit cards. This effectively bans funding online futures trading such as TradeSports.

Back to the accuracy of the predictions.

Of the 33 Senate races TradeSports listed only 7 of them at less than 90% certainty. The seven races were MD, MO, MT, RI, TN, VT (don't understand that one) and VA. Those include 5 of the 6 races decided by less than 10 points (AZ being the odd one out).

TradeSports Senate Record: 33 CORRECT out of 33 RACES (100%)...and a not too shabby forecasting record on the closeness of the races. 6 of the 7 races (85.7%) TradeSports predicted as being close actually were. As far as the races that actually were close (I expanded that definition to being decided by 8% or less) TradeSports called all of them less than certain...that is 5 out of 5 (100.0%).

TradeSports Dem House Pickup Record: There were a series of 10 contracts that were giving an overall prediction of how many seats would turnover. The best way to evaluate TradeSports' record is to find where the 50% was. It fell between a turnover of 19 1/2 seats to 24 1/2 seats. Assuming the 10 undecided races hold the results being reported the actual pickup will be 29 (and that includes the Independent that went to the Democrats...as listed in the rules of the contract). So, TradeSports undershot the turnover by 5-10 seats. Not bad considering the increments of the contracts were 5 seats.

TradeSports Governor Races: I did not follow these at all, so researching the prices was a bit of a task. The results (just to make it a bit more difficult for TradeSports) are based on the predictions from November 1 through today. The results are also assuming that Pawlenty is confirmed the winner in MN. The record: 35 CORRECT out of 36 RACES (97.2%). The lone miss was MN. The market was very certain of these results as early as November 1.
* 30 of 36 (83.3%) were never dropped below 90%.
* 32 of 36 (88.8%) were never dropped below 80%.
* 34 of 36 (94.4%) were never dropped below 70%.
* 35 of 36 (97.2%) were never dropped below 60%. The lone one, of course was MN, which TradeSports predicted as a loss.

Find another pundit or poll that got 100% of the Senate races correct AND 97% of the Governor's races AND 86% of the "only these Senate races are less than certain" correct. Once you find that list see which ones also predicted the Democrats would pickup at least 24 seats.

Where the TradesSports market did go wrong was listing the GOP with a 72% chance of holding the Senate. W-R-O-N-G.

The other place were the parlays. When taken together the prices indicated overpricing by 11%. They were predicting the GOP to hold the Senate and the Dems to grab the House.

All in all, the predictive nature of TradeSports on a single event (each single race) basis is still incredibly high. Governor & Senate races combined was 98.6%.

Better than the pollsters!

(Too bad the GOP killed this tool for future use with their pro-nanny state legislation.)

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Monday, November 06, 2006

Predictions the day before

--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/06/2006

This is the 'day before' market predictions for races that I have been tracking on TradeSports. I might also be going into these briefly on tomorrow night's election night coverage on KNSI starting at 7PM.

MN US SENATOR

Kennedy to win: 7.0%
Don't let this price fool you too much. There is no interest in this contract so the 7.0% is a bit of a premium. This contract never went above 50% and was only AT 50% on the day the contract started (December 2005). It has been on a steady decline its entire life last being over 40% in early June and permanently residing under 30% since mid-July. Since mid-September this contract has had only one day over 10%.

MN GOVERNOR

Pawlenty to win: 46.0%
This contract seemed to be a strong possibility to win. Since its inception at the end of March it stayed strongly between 60% and 80% through August 1 (with a 2 day sting slightly under 60% in mid-July). On August 1 this contract shot up above 80% and stayed between 80% and 85% until the Mark Foley scandal broke. That day this (and many other GOP contracts) fell hard. This one fell quickly to 60% and then steadily to as low as 23% by the 3rd week of October. It has not been above 50% since mid-October. The good news for this contract is a new and strong uptrend over the past few days has it rebounding from its new resting place of 30% about ready to break 50% again. At this very moment upward resistance is so weak that a purchase of 7 contracts would push the price back to 59%. The Bid/Ask is very active and also trending upwards.

MN 6th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Bachmann to win: 40.0%
Wetterling to win: 40.0%
These contracts started late and have had non-existent interest so prices are not very strong indicators as a predictor. There are two offers on Wetterling (people trying to sell) set at 37.5% and two bids on Bachmann set at 40% & 60%.

US SENATE MAJORITY

GOP hold majority: 72.0%
This is a strange pricing. In the previous post I listed the predictions for all of the US Senate races and there was only two toss-ups (both leaning Democrat). The balance of those contracts gave a party count of GOP 49, DEM 49, IND 2. The other paradoxical thing about this contract is its resiliance. From January 2006 until Mark Foley (beginning of October) this contract was strong residing in the 75%-90% range. After Foley it found a new and very volatile home in the 60% to 80%. Activity is very heavy. The floor-ceiling prices are around 70.0%/77.0%.

US HOUSE MAJORITY

GOP hold majority: 22.4%
This contract started 13 months ago in October 2006 and jumped up to 85%. Since then it has been a steady decline to its present spot. The truly disturbing data for this contract is the lead-like drop since the beginning of November 2006...from 30% to nearly 20%. The strongest support is at about 21.0% and the ceiling for resistance is at 25.0% (though there is a lot of resistance before that batch).

US HOUSE DEM PICKUP

Remember these are listed in 1/2 seats to avoid a push. Prcies followed by the prices last Tuesday in parenthesis.
Gain .5 seats: 98.7 (98.8)
Gain 4.5 seats: 97.4 (94.8)
Gain 9.5 seats: 95.0 (89.9)
Gain 14.5 seats: 85.5 (74.0) (needed for DEM Majority)
Gain 19.5 seats: 69.4 (63.8)
Gain 24.5 seats: 44.0 (38.5)
Gain 29.5 seats: 30.3 (29.5
Gain 34.5 seats: 22.0 (added on November 3)
Gain 39.5 seats: 15.0 (added on November 3)
Gain 44.5 seats: 10.0 (added on November 3)
There is no mistaking the trend in the market. The Democrats will gain seats and the closer the elections get the more seats the market is believing will be gained. Safe money is now on 20+ seats.

US CONGRESS ELECTION PARLAYS

GOP House, GOP Senate: 22.0 (25.0)
DEM House, GOP Senate: 57.0 (46.0)
GOP House, DEM Senate: 2.0 (6.0)
DEM House, DEM Senate: 30.0 (25.0)
The trend here mimics the trend in other contracts...The House will change hands. Control of the Senate reflects the same schizophrenia that is mention previously, leading to a conclusion that the Senate Majority is too close to call.

With the parlays the "Dem House" contracts with both the GOP Senate and Dem Senate are rising in price. Granted, the GOP Senate is +11.0% over the past week while the Dem Senate is only +5.0%, they are both still rising. This coincides with the US SENATE MAJORITY contract mentioned above...the GOP is likely to hold the Senate.

The individual Senate contracts are painting a picture contrary to that...the Party breakdown will be split (49-49-2), though the 2 IND will be on the DEM side of the aisle in reality. There are only 2 toss-ups (MO and VA) in the individual contracts, both leaning DEM. If those toss-ups remain with the GOP or if they split then the breakdown will be a technical GOP Majority (51-47-2 or 50-48-2). Difficult to say and these likely will not have a strong indicator until the returns start coming in tomorrow.

And yes, you can trade on these until certification (typically in December).

There you have it...TradeSports day before predictions. If I get an early enough start to my day tomorrow I may give a Same Day update.

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Predictions the day before--US Senate

--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/06/2006

I wanted to do this a little more frequently, but it was labor intensive in many ways. The first (and only previous) installment of the TradeSports predictions on the US Senate races can be found here. This is the 'day before' market predictions. I might also be going into these briefly on tomorrow night's election night coverage on KNSI starting at 7PM. And, some info about the coverage:
Hosted by Tony Garcia from KNSI’s Race to the Right, Don Lyons from KNSI’s Hot Talk with the Ox, and KNSI News Reporter Cassie Hart.

You’ll stay up-to-the-minute on the latest vote tallies as they come in. All local and state races will be covered along with national updates throughout the evening.

Featuring:
* Dan “The Ox” Ochsner broadcasting live from the Minnesota Republican Party Election Night Headquarters at the Sheraton South, Bloomington.
* Former Congressional Candidate Janet Robert broadcasting live from the DFL Headquarters at the Crown Plaza, St.Paul.
* Dave Phipps from KNSI’s Creative Department broadcasting live from various locations throughout the St.Cloud area.
* St.Cloud Mayor Dave Kleis broadcasting live from the Public Safety Referendum Headquarters in St.Cloud.
* Former St.Cloud Mayor Larry Meyer providing in-studio analysis and historical perspective of local races.
* Special interviews with Police Chief Dennis Ballentine, Fire Chief Bill Mund, and public safety officials planning the 2008 GOP National Convention in Minnesota.
The station's release did not mention it because it was not confirmed at the time, but Marty Andrade will also be helping with the election night coverage behind the scenes. Arguably his job will be the toughest of all. He will be compiling updates for scores upon scores of races (federal, state, county, local...) and updating them on the web for KNSI's listeners to also view...while also feeding them to me for on-air reporting.

OK, back to the US Senate races. Below are the TradeSports market-based predictions (and the chance of it coming to fruition).

If you need a primer on what the percentages relate to go this posting. There is a chart that helps convert the percentages to NFL Point Spreads, fractional odds and plain English.

For the sake of ease for me I am listing the state and the party predicted to win and the percentage of chance for that party winning being given by the market and then the party of the incumbent. (Bold/underline races are within the 'up for grabs' range of 40%-60%.) A note of technicality...these are based on the price of the last transaction rather than the more indicative buy/sell. However, this way is less labor intensive and at this point I need that.

State...Predicted Winner...% chance (% in 4/2005)...result
AZ...GOP...90.0 (89.0) GOP hold
CA...DEM...96.6 (96.8) DEM hold
CT...IND...96.6 (94.5) IND gain
DE...DEM...96.0 (96.0) DEM hold
FL...DEM...98.5 (82.0) DEM hold
HI...DEM...95.1 (96.0) DEM hold
IN...GOP...95.6 (96.0) GOP hold
ME...GOP...98.0 (95.0) GOP hold
MD...DEM...68.0 (62.9) (open) DEM hold
MA...DEM...96.5 (90.0) DEM hold
MI...DEM...94.9 (90.0) DEM hold
MN...DEM...92.9 (63.9) (open) DEM hold
MS...GOP...95.5 (96.0) GOP hold
MO...DEM...56.5 (GOP 59.5) DEM gain
MT...DEM...69.1 (55.0) DEM gain
NE...DEM...95.5 (90.0) DEM hold
NV...GOP...90.0 (90.0) GOP hold
NJ...DEM...91.0 (62.0) DEM hold
NM...DEM...95.5 (99.9) DEM hold
NY...DEM...99.6 (97.0) DEM hold
ND...DEM...95.0 (93.0) DEM hold
OH...DEM...95.0 (GOP 53.0) DEM gain
PA...DEM...94.9 (69.9) DEM gain
RI...DEM...78.0 (55.0) DEM gain
TN...GOP...82.9 (72.5) GOP hold
TX...GOP...97.0 (96.0) GOP hold
UT...GOP...95.5 (96.0) GOP hold
VT...IND...70.0 (90.0) IND hold
VA...DEM...52.0 (GOP 89.0) DEM gain
WA...DEM...92.2 (79.8) DEM hold
WV...DEM...97.0 (87.0) DEM hold
WI...DEM...95.0 (90.0) DEM hold
WY...GOP...95.0 (96.0) GOP hold

What is the total...DEM: +5, GOP: -6, IND: +1. In reality the 2 IND will be no different from being DEM seats. That would make the 2007-2008 Senate makeup GOP 49, DEM 49, IND 2.

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Thursday, November 02, 2006

Pete's Take: Kennedy, Klobuchar, Fitzgerald Debate

--posted by Pete Arnold on 11/02/2006


There is a debate going on as I write this between Robert Fitzgerald (I), Mark Kennedy (R), and Amy Klobuchar (D).

I love these debates. I would hardly call them debates however, as the subjects change not based on the topics, but what the "contestants" want to say or about what they want to poke at.
Here is my view on the debate:

The Social Security question was brought up. Kennedy points out how the current deficit is partly due to the War on Terror... then from the crowd you hear commenting, and angrily hushed "no's" and "boos" by the audience... after, of course, clapping earlier for Klobuchar when she commented on moving away from Kerry’s comments (actual quote below). It is made obvious here that the people in the crowd are defiantly not Republican, nor do they have much common sense.

Klobuchar points out how she wants to cut the Bush tax cuts (ie. raise your taxes), because they are mostly for the rich. This is a great example of the socialist "Lets force everyone to be equal" crap. I wish Klobuchar would have pointed out how the Top 1% Pay 34.27% of taxes and the top 50% pay 96.54% of all income taxes.

Fitzgerald mentions that we can't deficit spend our way to fixing Medicare and social security while we are spending so much on a war... Hmmmm... Didn’t the audience boo earlier when Kennedy pointed out that part of the deficit is due to the War on Terror?

Klobuchar on embryonic steam cell research, and Fitzgerald mentions how it doesn’t make since to tie our hands on embryonic stem cell research.

To quote Wall Street Journal: Europe In their September 3, 2001 issue, page 36, by Richard Miniter:
Of the 15 US biotech companies solely devoted to developing cures using stem cells, only two focus on embryos. Embryo stem cell research is at the drawing-board stage – not for lack of funds but for lack of promising research to finance. Venture capitalists have no agenda beyond making money; if they see embryo projects that are likely to bear fruit over the next five to seven years – the usual VC time horizon – they will fund them. That the market is speaking so loudly against embryo stem cell research probably explains why embryo researchers are so eager to reverse the ban on government funding.

Kennedy says that the adult stem cells are more useful and it is not the government’s place to charge people for what they do not morally believe in.

The question on abortion: Where do you stand on the issue on abortion and why:

Fitsgerald’s answer stuck out more then Kennedy (who is against) or Klobuchar (who said she wants a reduction in the number, against all but … Fitsgerald says, and I quote: “only fanatical zealots believe that passing legislation will reduce the number of abortions.” Interesting way to word that, there, Robert. I believe that is best met with no response, because If I say anything, I will seam like a “Fanatical Zealot.”

In his closing remarks, Kennedy mentioned, in part, John Kerry’s “disparaging remarks,” and this again was met with hushed anger from the crowd, and a soft clapping when the audience was queued to clap. Earlier Klobuchar said “unlike the congressman, I don’t think the people in Minnesota are interested in going back and redoing the Kerry bush fight, they want to talk about the elections in November, and it is time for a change” where she was interrupted with clapping form the audience.

When Robert Fitzgerald finished, there was quick, louder clapping from the audience. He blathered on about minnesota’s having a responsibility to reclaim the government that’s gotten away from us. May I remind the people reading this that Minnesota is a Blue State? Oh good, it wouldn’t be complete without bashing Big Oil and Big Pharmaceuticals, that wraps it up nicely.

And Amy Klobuhcar’s remarks are typical liberal. Holy crap, friends, I can’t make this stuff up. Listen to this excerpt:
Too many of these guys are lost in their own wilderness, they’ve been led astray by the Enron’s, the Exxon’s, and the Halliburton’s, and they need a compass, they need a moral compass (light clapping), but the only problem is all they’ve got is the congressional compass, and it only points in one direction, and that toward “W” as in George W, and I can tell you this, when I’m your senator, I won’t be following the Loan Star, I’ll be following the North Star (clapping again)…
She mentions that its about "energy independence, investing in the farmers and the workers of the mid west instead of the Oil Cartels of the mid east"

Great, what a way to win on the current topics, lets point some more fingers and blame Big Oil, The Rich, and George W Bush for whatever we can. Gesh... and don't forget... "Energy Independence" from the "oil cartels of the mid east" apparently doesn't mean using our own oil (ANWR), now does it?

Man, I let these crazy liberals get to me far too often, but it can’t be helped when they say stupid stuff like that.

Go Mark Kennedy. You’ve got my vote.

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