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Monday, November 06, 2006

Predictions the day before

--posted by Tony Garcia on 11/06/2006

This is the 'day before' market predictions for races that I have been tracking on TradeSports. I might also be going into these briefly on tomorrow night's election night coverage on KNSI starting at 7PM.


Kennedy to win: 7.0%
Don't let this price fool you too much. There is no interest in this contract so the 7.0% is a bit of a premium. This contract never went above 50% and was only AT 50% on the day the contract started (December 2005). It has been on a steady decline its entire life last being over 40% in early June and permanently residing under 30% since mid-July. Since mid-September this contract has had only one day over 10%.


Pawlenty to win: 46.0%
This contract seemed to be a strong possibility to win. Since its inception at the end of March it stayed strongly between 60% and 80% through August 1 (with a 2 day sting slightly under 60% in mid-July). On August 1 this contract shot up above 80% and stayed between 80% and 85% until the Mark Foley scandal broke. That day this (and many other GOP contracts) fell hard. This one fell quickly to 60% and then steadily to as low as 23% by the 3rd week of October. It has not been above 50% since mid-October. The good news for this contract is a new and strong uptrend over the past few days has it rebounding from its new resting place of 30% about ready to break 50% again. At this very moment upward resistance is so weak that a purchase of 7 contracts would push the price back to 59%. The Bid/Ask is very active and also trending upwards.


Bachmann to win: 40.0%
Wetterling to win: 40.0%
These contracts started late and have had non-existent interest so prices are not very strong indicators as a predictor. There are two offers on Wetterling (people trying to sell) set at 37.5% and two bids on Bachmann set at 40% & 60%.


GOP hold majority: 72.0%
This is a strange pricing. In the previous post I listed the predictions for all of the US Senate races and there was only two toss-ups (both leaning Democrat). The balance of those contracts gave a party count of GOP 49, DEM 49, IND 2. The other paradoxical thing about this contract is its resiliance. From January 2006 until Mark Foley (beginning of October) this contract was strong residing in the 75%-90% range. After Foley it found a new and very volatile home in the 60% to 80%. Activity is very heavy. The floor-ceiling prices are around 70.0%/77.0%.


GOP hold majority: 22.4%
This contract started 13 months ago in October 2006 and jumped up to 85%. Since then it has been a steady decline to its present spot. The truly disturbing data for this contract is the lead-like drop since the beginning of November 2006...from 30% to nearly 20%. The strongest support is at about 21.0% and the ceiling for resistance is at 25.0% (though there is a lot of resistance before that batch).


Remember these are listed in 1/2 seats to avoid a push. Prcies followed by the prices last Tuesday in parenthesis.
Gain .5 seats: 98.7 (98.8)
Gain 4.5 seats: 97.4 (94.8)
Gain 9.5 seats: 95.0 (89.9)
Gain 14.5 seats: 85.5 (74.0) (needed for DEM Majority)
Gain 19.5 seats: 69.4 (63.8)
Gain 24.5 seats: 44.0 (38.5)
Gain 29.5 seats: 30.3 (29.5
Gain 34.5 seats: 22.0 (added on November 3)
Gain 39.5 seats: 15.0 (added on November 3)
Gain 44.5 seats: 10.0 (added on November 3)
There is no mistaking the trend in the market. The Democrats will gain seats and the closer the elections get the more seats the market is believing will be gained. Safe money is now on 20+ seats.


GOP House, GOP Senate: 22.0 (25.0)
DEM House, GOP Senate: 57.0 (46.0)
GOP House, DEM Senate: 2.0 (6.0)
DEM House, DEM Senate: 30.0 (25.0)
The trend here mimics the trend in other contracts...The House will change hands. Control of the Senate reflects the same schizophrenia that is mention previously, leading to a conclusion that the Senate Majority is too close to call.

With the parlays the "Dem House" contracts with both the GOP Senate and Dem Senate are rising in price. Granted, the GOP Senate is +11.0% over the past week while the Dem Senate is only +5.0%, they are both still rising. This coincides with the US SENATE MAJORITY contract mentioned above...the GOP is likely to hold the Senate.

The individual Senate contracts are painting a picture contrary to that...the Party breakdown will be split (49-49-2), though the 2 IND will be on the DEM side of the aisle in reality. There are only 2 toss-ups (MO and VA) in the individual contracts, both leaning DEM. If those toss-ups remain with the GOP or if they split then the breakdown will be a technical GOP Majority (51-47-2 or 50-48-2). Difficult to say and these likely will not have a strong indicator until the returns start coming in tomorrow.

And yes, you can trade on these until certification (typically in December).

There you have it...TradeSports day before predictions. If I get an early enough start to my day tomorrow I may give a Same Day update.

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