Predictions the day before--US Senate

I wanted to do this a little more frequently, but it was labor intensive in many ways. The first (and only previous) installment of the TradeSports predictions on the US Senate races can be found here. This is the 'day before' market predictions. I might also be going into these briefly on tomorrow night's election night coverage on KNSI starting at 7PM. And, some info about the coverage:

Hosted by Tony Garcia from KNSI’s Race to the Right, Don Lyons from KNSI’s Hot Talk with the Ox, and KNSI News Reporter Cassie Hart.

You’ll stay up-to-the-minute on the latest vote tallies as they come in. All local and state races will be covered along with national updates throughout the evening.

Featuring:
* Dan “The Ox” Ochsner broadcasting live from the Minnesota Republican Party Election Night Headquarters at the Sheraton South, Bloomington.
* Former Congressional Candidate Janet Robert broadcasting live from the DFL Headquarters at the Crown Plaza, St.Paul.
* Dave Phipps from KNSI’s Creative Department broadcasting live from various locations throughout the St.Cloud area.
* St.Cloud Mayor Dave Kleis broadcasting live from the Public Safety Referendum Headquarters in St.Cloud.
* Former St.Cloud Mayor Larry Meyer providing in-studio analysis and historical perspective of local races.
* Special interviews with Police Chief Dennis Ballentine, Fire Chief Bill Mund, and public safety officials planning the 2008 GOP National Convention in Minnesota.

The station's release did not mention it because it was not confirmed at the time, but Marty Andrade will also be helping with the election night coverage behind the scenes. Arguably his job will be the toughest of all. He will be compiling updates for scores upon scores of races (federal, state, county, local...) and updating them on the web for KNSI's listeners to also view...while also feeding them to me for on-air reporting.

OK, back to the US Senate races. Below are the TradeSports market-based predictions (and the chance of it coming to fruition).

If you need a primer on what the percentages relate to go this posting. There is a chart that helps convert the percentages to NFL Point Spreads, fractional odds and plain English.

For the sake of ease for me I am listing the state and the party predicted to win and the percentage of chance for that party winning being given by the market and then the party of the incumbent. (Bold/underline races are within the 'up for grabs' range of 40%-60%.) A note of technicality...these are based on the price of the last transaction rather than the more indicative buy/sell. However, this way is less labor intensive and at this point I need that.

State...Predicted Winner...% chance (% in 4/2005)...result
AZ...GOP...90.0 (89.0) GOP hold
CA...DEM...96.6 (96.8) DEM hold
CT...IND...96.6 (94.5) IND gain
DE...DEM...96.0 (96.0) DEM hold
FL...DEM...98.5 (82.0) DEM hold
HI...DEM...95.1 (96.0) DEM hold
IN...GOP...95.6 (96.0) GOP hold
ME...GOP...98.0 (95.0) GOP hold
MD...DEM...68.0 (62.9) (open) DEM hold
MA...DEM...96.5 (90.0) DEM hold
MI...DEM...94.9 (90.0) DEM hold
MN...DEM...92.9 (63.9) (open) DEM hold
MS...GOP...95.5 (96.0) GOP hold
MO...DEM...56.5 (GOP 59.5) DEM gain
MT...DEM...69.1 (55.0) DEM gain
NE...DEM...95.5 (90.0) DEM hold
NV...GOP...90.0 (90.0) GOP hold
NJ...DEM...91.0 (62.0) DEM hold
NM...DEM...95.5 (99.9) DEM hold
NY...DEM...99.6 (97.0) DEM hold
ND...DEM...95.0 (93.0) DEM hold
OH...DEM...95.0 (GOP 53.0) DEM gain
PA...DEM...94.9 (69.9) DEM gain
RI...DEM...78.0 (55.0) DEM gain
TN...GOP...82.9 (72.5) GOP hold
TX...GOP...97.0 (96.0) GOP hold
UT...GOP...95.5 (96.0) GOP hold
VT...IND...70.0 (90.0) IND hold
VA...DEM...52.0 (GOP 89.0) DEM gain
WA...DEM...92.2 (79.8) DEM hold
WV...DEM...97.0 (87.0) DEM hold
WI...DEM...95.0 (90.0) DEM hold
WY...GOP...95.0 (96.0) GOP hold

What is the total...DEM: +5, GOP: -6, IND: +1. In reality the 2 IND will be no different from being DEM seats. That would make the 2007-2008 Senate makeup GOP 49, DEM 49, IND 2.