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Monday, July 31, 2006

Iran says no way...Why it is WWIII

--posted by Tony Garcia on 7/31/2006

(H/T: Northern Alliance Wannabe)

Can We Think About That...No Thanks

In case you have not heard the completely expected news:
Iranian state radio said Saturday that the government would reject a proposed U.N. resolution that would give it until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of international sanctions.

"Iranians will not accept unfair decisions, even in the framework of resolutions by the international bodies," the commentary on state-run radio said.

There has been no official comment to the draft resolution, but state radio often is thought to provide the Iranian government line.

There has been no official comment to the draft resolution, but state radio often is thought to provide the Iranian government line.

The resolution was formally circulated to the full 15-member U.N. Security Council late Friday and likely will be adopted next week.

"Ultimatum and deadline cannot be acceptable to us," the commentary said, accusing the United States and its allies of making what it called an illegal demand.

The commentary also said the draft might not be approved because of opposition by China.

Tehran said last week it would reply Aug. 22 to a Western incentive package, but the council decided to go ahead with a resolution and not wait for Iran's response.

The incentive package includes economic incentives and a provision for the United States to offer Iran some nuclear technology, lift some sanctions and join direct negotiations. The proposal also calls for Iran to impose a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment — which can produce peaceful reactor fuel or fissile bomb material.

The U.S. and some of its allies accuse Iran of seeking nuclear weapons. Tehran maintains its program is purely peaceful and aimed at generating electricity.

Iran has said it will never give up its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel but has indicated it may temporarily suspend large-scale activities to ease tensions.
Had to do the whole article...sometimes the full story on FoxNews.com does not go into long term archives.

In case you didn't hear us yesterday (show is available through webcast) I explained why this whole Iranian consideration of the UN proposal was a delay tactic.

Short version in chronological bullet points:
* Iran enriching Uranium...making U-235. Takes about a year of spinning in centrifuge to make it weapons grade (80% pure).
* Israeli intelligence has been putting the estimated timeline for completion between May 2006 and October 2006.
* Iran claims enrichment is for needed power.
* In June Iran is offered enriched Uranium in exchange for them shutting down all enrichment facilities (estimated to be about 17 or 18 facilities). If the offer is not accepted there will be sanctions.

Consider how long sanctions would take to (a) be put in place and (b) have any effective impact.

* Iran says, "give us 'til the end of August to decide".
* Shortly after Iran's surrogate kidnaps Israeli soldiers and fighting begins.

Why? My belief is for a few reasons.
1) Create a distraction enough to take public attention away from Iran's development (completion soon?)
2) Tie up some of Israel’s military resources so Israel will be less able to effectively perform a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities
3) Have an event that will still be a higher priority in most people's minds when it is discovered that Iran's U-235 weapons grade enrichment is complete
4) Give the borderline Arab states a more solid justification for attacking Israel or at least standing on Iran's side firmly. As it is, Saudi Arabia is already swaying from the "Israel can defend itself" to the "Israel’s response is unhumanitarian"

That Iran is going to turn down an offer giving them everything they claimed they needed from nuclear enrichment is not surprising at all.

Why World War III is More than the GOP 2006 Campaign Slogan

Israeli intelligence is also indicating that once Iran has weapons grade U-235 and a delivery system (not difficult to buy, really) their first three targets will be simultaneous strikes on Israel, London and New York. Absolute collapse of the Western World's economic structure in more devastating fashion than 9/11.

What is Israel going to do? What are we going to do?

We will likely do nothing. We are immasculated by the war-protesting movement that effectively and falaciously blurred the line between "support our troops" and "against the war". While they are actually mutually exclusive the war-protesters have succeeded in making many people believe that it is possible to believe both. This strengthened the consensus of people who think the troops should come home from Iraq. Mind you, Iraq was never primarily about WMD, but was about Iran. That does not matter to the ideologues (party over principles on the Left)...they want a Bush defeat no matter the cost. The result is American sentiment leaning towards withdrawal from Iraq. That queasy stomach is also weakening support for being in Afghanistan (which, btw, borders Iran). The result is also the unwillingness of sitting politicians to take a strong stance for action against Iran.

That leaves Israel to act. There are 3 main scenarios from this.
1. ACTION AND SUCCESS
If they act (and succeed) in time by annihilating ALL of Iran's nuclear facilities they will have likely ended the immediate nuclear threat. But what will the response from Iran and the Arab world be? My belief is the attack on Iran will give them all the concrete justification to "unload in the face" of Israel. Then a good portion of the Western World and the few Arab states the do not attack Israel will be pressured into an actual armed response. We then will likely lead the charge with Canada and Australia, maybe even Japan. The UK will follow. Eventually I believe Russia will give the same neutrality for Iran that we gave the UK before WWI and WWII. Then Germany will jump in, I think on Israel's side. They are so aware and haunted by their history that they try to side on non-violence. At this point they will not be able to be on that side and, continuing to be in the shadow of judgement for the Holocaust, will side with Israel. France I believe will be the last to jump in...and I think their spineless nature will affect their decisions. They are a coin toss as to which side they would support. My money (though not a lot of it) is on them trying the road of appeasement once again...trying to satisfy their Muslim minority and side with Iran.

2. ACTION AND FAILURE
If Israel attempts to destroy all of the facilities and misses any or does not effectively damage/destroy any the response will be similar to above. Arab nations attack and sides will be taken. The difference is Iran will be able to turn the battle nuclear to some degree. That may affect which side and how strongly Germany & France join, but the important detail is: nuclear will be a factor. How soon into the fighting will nuclear weapons be deployed depends on the amount of damage, but it will be a question.

The problem is we will not know which of these scenarios is occurring until either Iran & co. are defeated or they do launch a nuclear missile.

3. INACTION
Inaction, sadly, is the most likely. As mention already we are hogtied by our anti-war movement. We are nearly as impotent as Europe has been. Israel's resources are distracted/divided right now making an effective strike unlikely, or at least unlikely to succeed. Getting the UN Security Council, the UN in whole, NATO, the EU or any consensus of nations to any action takes tooooooo long. That is a fact I'm certain the enemy is aware of. What happens then? Iran completes enrichment and fires their missiles. Do NOT fool yourself into thinking they are not willing to do so. Mutually Assured Destruction works if neither side wants to die. We fear death and our enemy looks for it.

They launch, and in their mind one of two things happens. (A) We launch back and we all die, they go to heaven, Zion and its allies are defeated, Muslims win, or (B) No equal response happens and they severely weaken, if not destroy, the West. Some of their brothers may die, but that is martyrdom at its finest!

They launch and (I hope) we would respond. Hopefully the yields they manage and yields we respond with are not high enough to destroy civilization (welcome back Cold War nightmares--remember The Day After). Then we simply have a war to be fought that has gone nuclear to start.

Peace and Palestinian Civilian Casualties

Certainly there may be a way for all of this to calm down without WWIII. I see it as a long shot...like trying to draw for an inside straight. I suppose the first step in that no-WWIII scenario is for Israel to cease fire. I don't see that happening as Israeli PM Olmert said so.
Israeli warplanes carried out strikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, hours after agreeing to temporarily halt air raids while investigating a bombing that killed at least 56 Lebanese civilians, mostly women and children seeking shelter. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said there will be no cease-fire, adding that "Israel is continuing to fight."
...
Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Israel plans to "expand and strengthen" its attack on Hezbollah, diminishing hopes that the 48- hour airstrike halt could become a longer cease-fire.
The worldwide crying against Israel is mostly rooted in the Lebanese civilian casualties. According to Australia's Herald Sun there are photos showing Lebanon is fighting from civilian suburbs...using civilian dressed fighters.
THIS is the picture that damns Hezbollah. It is one of several, smuggled from behind Lebanon's battle lines, showing that Hezbollah is waging war amid suburbia.

The images, obtained exclusively by the Sunday Herald Sun, show Hezbollah using high-density residential areas as launch pads for rockets and heavy-calibre weapons.

Dressed in civilian clothing so they can quickly disappear, the militants carrying automatic assault rifles and ride in on trucks mounted with cannon.

The photographs, from the Christian area of Wadi Chahrour in the east of Beirut, were taken by a visiting journalist and smuggled out by a friend.
The reality is if one side dresses as, fires from and hides amongst civilians then the other side is 100% justfied in targeting civilian locations. If the blame is to be laid at the targeter's feet then the targets must be dressed in military uniforms, firing/fighting in uniform and NOT hiding as/among civilians.

No discussion. Sorry, Lebanese innocents, but the people you allow to hide amongst you have deemed you to be worthy and necessary targets. Good luck.

Conclusion

I hope I am wrong. I hope this is not WWIII brewing (or underway). I REALLY hope Iran cannot go nuclear. I see these paths though as being the most likely given the actors participating and the evil that is driving Muslim nations.

And if we, the West, and we, the United States, can get through the Iranian danger we cannot rest. North Korea is the exact same situation...except Iranian's leaders are rational (wrong and evil, but rational). North Korea's leaders is insane which complicates things. And after that...China. BTW, notice that China has been sitting fairly silent on the sidelines, not using any of their resources on this?

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3 Comments:

Blogger bobby_b said...

A. Maybe Israel has started WWIII at exactly the right time. Choice seems to have been, wait for two years when Iran has a bomb (maybe suitcase, as their delivery systems may not be ready by then), or go now. Makes "now" sound smart.

B. Sanctions only work against relatively poor countries. Iran is rich.

C. There is no way that Iran is going to voluntarily stop its efforts to produce a Bomb. None. In the mullahs' minds, they are The Chosen, fighting their Gawd's fight. Anything they do is allowable in such a fight, so we cannot depend on some idea of "honor" - if they do agree to some halt, they won't consider it to be a lie, or a dishonorable thing, to simply hide their work. To lie to others in their Gawd's work is not simply "not bad", it's required.

D. Q: How do you stop a country that idolizes martyrdom from first launch against Israel?

A: Give them martyrdom before they launch. Only way.

July 31, 2006  
Blogger Tony said...

I agree...

I don't see how that necessity (giving Iran martyrdom) can happen without WWIII in some sense occurring.

To you point "A"...that is a very real liklihood. Take advantage of the smaller incursion to begin massive salvos. Any other year Israel may have just launched rockets for a few days.

"B"...very true...that makes the proposal even more idiotic and says something stronger about Iran's not agreeing to something so toothless.

"C" You are right.

July 31, 2006  
Blogger bobby_b said...

It's almost as if the mullahs are working for Rove.

("I know! Let's start a huge, dangerous regional conflict right before the US elections! People ALWAYS vote for Dems when there's a war starting!")

July 31, 2006  

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