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Sunday, August 20, 2006

Iran's wargames and secret buildup

--posted by Tony Garcia on 8/20/2006

August 22 it just around the corner. Some scholars fear that it is the day that will begin some road to violence (possibly war) between the West and Iran. Coincidently that is also the day the West set as a deadline for Iran to accept an offer of nuclear energy in exchange for Iran to cease its Uranium enrichment...which Iran said it will decline...which the West says will be responded to with sanctions.

And last week Iran mentioned its new "defensive" tactics will be demonstrated this past weekend. What were those demonstrations? Missile tests.
Iran's army has fired tactical missiles and will test surface-to-sea missiles during Iranian army wargames on Sunday, state television reported.

Iran's army launched wargames in the south of the country on Saturday, and said new, Iranian-built equipment would be tested. It did not say how long the wargames will last.

Tactical surface-to-surface Iranian-made Saeqa (Thunderbolt) missiles, with a range of 80-250 km (50-160 miles), were tested on Sunday, state television reported.

It also said surface-to-sea missiles would be tested on Sunday. It did not identify the missiles by name but said the weapon had been developed by Iranian scientists.
Don't let that alarm you at all...it is only threatening an interruption of oil lines.
Analysts interpreted those wargames as a thinly veiled threat that Iran could disrupt vital oil shipping lanes if pushed by an escalation in the nuclear dispute.

Iran is embroiled in a nuclear standoff with the West.

It is due to reply by August 22 to a demand by major powers that it suspend uranium enrichment in return for trade and technical concessions. It denies accusations by Western countries that it is seeking nuclear bombs.
And in other news, Hezbollah is rearming:
Hizbullah and its Iranian and Syrian patrons feel that with the international community is determined to monitor the Lebanese-Syrian border to curtail arms smuggling from Syria and have intensified their efforts to rearm the group in the short time left before international observers deploy along the border.

The efforts focus on replenishing Hizbullah's secret arms storage depots with antitank and antiaircraft missiles, and long-range missiles.

Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been dispatched to Syria and Lebanon to rehabilitate Hizbullah.

A rehabilitated Hizbullah can undermine the Lebanese army and the beefed up UN peacekeeping force and prepare the group for a second round of fighting with Israel.
And there are some misguided people that actually think the ceasefire will last. The actual members of the ceasefire do not believe so:
Hizbullah, like Israel, believes fighting is likely to reignite soon. In southern Lebanon, the group cannot act freely because of Israel's military presence, the deployment of the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers and pressure from local residents who want to return to normal life.
And a few details about the Hezbollah rearming...
Beirut remains under and aerial and maritime blockade imposed by the Israeli army and groups opposed to Hizbullah are closely watching the activities of the group.

Therefore the operation to rearm Hizbullah has been almost totally focused on the Bekaa region, which is fully controlled by the Shiite group.

The region's proximity to Syria makes it easier to smuggle arms to towns and villages in the Beeka which houses the group's logistic headquarters.
Let's be honest. The people on one side of this battle (the anti-Semites of the world, such as Hezbollah and much of the Islamic Conference) have a very poor record with ceasefires. They rearm...they do not use ceasefires for an effort towards maintaining the peace, they simply use the ceasefires as restrictions on their enemy (Israel) which allows them to get ready for a new offensive. And they are protected by the anti-Semites of the world who keep treating them as the victims.
Israel has a rich experience in attempts by Arab enemies to rearm in ceasefire periods brokered by the international community.

During the war of attrition that followed the 1967 Middle East war Egypt positioned Soviet antiaircraft batteries in the Suez Canal area in violation of a UN resolution.

Israel acted with restraint but its air force fleet suffered many losses in the two years leading to the 1973 Israeli-Arab war.

Israel is monitoring activities along the Syria-Lebanon border from the air and land using advanced military technology.
In the end the ceasefire is having what I believe is the intended effect...help Hezbollah and hamstring Israel. The United Nations, the Left and much of the world hates Israel. They love ceasefires because it enables the enemies of Israel a chance to get stronger and handcuff Israel. If Isreal attempts to prevent rearming and buildups they are assailed as violating the ceasefire. If Israel sits back and does nothing they are allowing Iran to build up on Israel's front door. The United Nations expects Israel to endanger themselves by doing nothing.

I for one support an Israeli strike on any buildup, any smuggling lines and any enemy outposts.


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