Pennant winner predictions--posted by Tony Garcia on 8/14/2006
Hmm, middle of August and the pennant races are beginning to heat up. Well, the races for 4th seed in each league are heating...but that is the topic of a different post.
Where are the investors putting their money as far as the Pennant winners in each league?
From the National League there are three teams being given a 10% or better chance to win the NL. The New York Mets (34.9%), the St Louis Cardinals (22%) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (14%).
Over in the Junior Circuit there are five teams at a better than 1 in 10 chance of winning the AL. The New York Yankees (23.5%), the Detroit Tigers (22%), the Chicago White Sox (16.9%), the Boston Red Sox (13.7%) and the Oakland Athletics (12%). For those of you wondering, the Minnesota Twins are next at 6.5%.
Now, what about the World Series? New York has the top two spots. The Mets are given a 17.1% chance to win it all and the Yankees 15.5%. The Tigers are next at 12.1% and the White Sox at 11.8%.
The rest of the stronger candidates to win their pennants are not being given much chance to win the World Series. Cardinals: 9.2%, Red Sox: 9.1%, Athletics: 6.7% and Dodgers: 5.3%. The Twins...3.9% chance to win the World Series.
Now, if you buy 10 contracts of each of the top 5 teams World Series contracts (Mets, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox and Cardinals) that would cost you a total $65.70. How?
Mets at 17.1% costs $1.71 per contract x 10 contracts = $17.10If one of those 5 teams DOES win the World Series that contract will pay $10 per contract...giving you $100.00. (The other ones will cash out a $0). That is a net gain of $34.3...a return of 5.22% over 2 1/2 months. That is like an APR of 25% or so.
Yankees at 15.5% costs $1.55 per contract x 10 contracts = $15.50
Tigers at 12.1% costs $1.21 per contract x 10 contracts = $12.10
White Sox at 11.8% costs $1.18 per contract x 10 contracts = $11.80
Cardinals at 9.2% costs $.92 per contract x 10 contracts = $9.20
TOTAL = $65.70
Go set up an account and good luck!!