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Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Update on political investing

--posted by Tony Garcia on 8/08/2006

Three weeks ago I posted a few charts from TradeSports about a few political races of interest. (On a sidenote, TradesSports has changed the coding on their charts so they do update now within a posting here.)

Regarding Pawlenty's race it was previously observed:
Tim Pawlenty was trading at roughly a 70% chance of winning
He dropped down to [a] 55% chance. Granted there is little support or resistance (for you investors you understand that) on the bid/ask, but it is telling that the race is not necessarily as safe as it previously was.
An update shows a strong recovery pushing Pawlenty over the 80+% chance to win. He has steadily been there since the beginning of August.

In the Senate race's tea leaves I previously reported
Mark Kennedy is still hovering around the 40% chance of winning mark with very little movement, very little interest and very little volume from the investors.
The update is quite the opposite of Pawlenty. Kennedy, with heavier than normal volume, has dropped to a 20% chance of winning.

On to the national picture.

Regarding the US Senate and the chances for the GOP holding onto the majority...The chances are fairly steady at about 83%. There were a few periods of heavy trading but even in there the price stayed steady around 80%.

GOP retaining control of the House seems to be an ever darkening picture.

Previously I wrote:
As you can see from the chart the chance of the House remaining with the GOP is bouncing around between 45% and 55%. Flip a coin and you have the same chances of calling it correctly.
The same is true...barely. The price is struggling to stay at 45% now and the trend over the past 11 months has been steadily falling (from near 90% chance of retaining the majority to the present 45%).

Take those for what they are worth...they are only updates on what the investors think.

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