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Wednesday, August 09, 2006

TradeSports predictions and what Lieberman means to the GOP

--posted by Tony Garcia on 8/09/2006

Every now and then I post some "prices" from TradeSports as a kind of predictive pulse on events.

The most recent one is beginning to solidify a bleak picture for the GOP. How much should one put into those predictions? I say more than polls.

Take Joe Lieberman as an example. On July 5th I authored a post that explained why Party over Politics does nothing for anyone but the Party itself. On July 11th a contract started on TradeSports to price the chance of Lieberman winning the Democrat nomination. The price started at a modest 70%...and fell steadily from there. On July 31st the price dropped below 45% (the accepted threshold for being considered a 50/50 chance of occurring) and never climbed above that. The price before yesterday was indicating a 20% for Lieberman winning the nomination.

People pay attention to where they put their money...that is why this is such a good tool to use for getting a pulse on what is happening. The GOP should be watching those prices and realizing that, for them, Something Wicked This Way Comes. August...maybe borderline too late to fix that. But I believe the path is a direct result of the "we suck but they suck more" approach is exactly what is dragging down the GOP's chances. It is the disingenuousness in their message and tactics. It is the casting aside of principles simply for the sake of winning...it is a transparent and phony approach. And to those paying attention it is insulting.

So, Lieberman's loss has so many more implications nationwide. The Democrats have gone far left and are pushing out those on their right (which are/were moderate Democrats). Instead of the GOP capturing that group and GROWING the tent they simply picked up the tent and moved in centerward. This is shown in the treatment of Sue Jeffers here, of fiscal conservatives here who are not supporting Tim Pawlenty. This is shown in the Colorado 5th CD Primary is showing that the GOP has gone centrist and are pushing out those on their Right...with the blessing of the "conservatives" in the GOP. This is the real danger for a party with Party over Politics.

The writing is being written on the wall. Which Wednesday will the GOP read the message and fix their plan? The first Wednesday after the first Monday in August or November?

********** UPDATE **********
Oh, don't feel too bad for Lieberman yet. He will run as an independent (the GOP would be wise to try to get him to switch parties, but political tactical wisdom is not their strength of late). And TradeSports has the chances of "the rest of the field" (which means anyone not Republican or Democrat) as winning in November at 57.1%.

********** UPDATE **********
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