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Thursday, September 14, 2006

Conspiracy theory not plausible

--posted by Tony Garcia on 9/14/2006

I just received a phone call from a radio show wanting to get some insight on a conspiracy theory. Somewhere the idea started that the GOP organized faux support for Ellison to make sure he won so Alan Fine would have a very easy target (and consequently actually having a shot at victory).

It would be folly to say "impossible" but I will confidently say "not plausible".

First consider some of the baggage already unleashed.

Ties to Louis Farrakhan: Sure many people think such ties are a liability but the 5th contains areas where liberal Democrats are considered moderate. There are pockets of the 5th where these ties are either irrelevant or considered a bonus. Most of all, too few people know and understand the danger and hate in Farrakhan, but being in the middle of "hate the other side" politics there is little that can be said to convince these people how bad ties to Farrakhan really are.

Support for Kathleen Soliah: This is now less of a liability to Democrats amongst liberals than it was when it all happened. Yes, conservatives view it as a huge problem. What is forgotten is the demographics of the 5th...hard left in the city and left to moderate left in most of the remainder of the 5th.

Most of the rest of the baggage that will be brought up falls under the same category. Since political discourse in the state is of the "hate the other side, everything they say is wrong" brand there is little that can be brought up against a Democrat in the 5th that will cause him to hemorrhage votes.

The final two things that I believe make the conspiracy theory "not plausible" are demonstrated voting behavior. Look at the precinct by precinct results from this past Tuesday. Ellison's support came from Minneapolis. This is the Minneapolis where the GOP would not be able to get a moderate Democrat elected. This is the GOP that believes it is so outnumbered in Minneapolis that they just roll over in a number of races by finding an incompetent "candidate" and consider being within 40 points an accomlishment.

The ability of the GOP to perform such a coup in Minneapolis is, well, simply not plausible. So, whoever thought this one up should get in their black helicopter and fly to Roswell...at least there will be more reality in THAT then their theory about Ellison, Fine, the GOP, Minneapolis and this year's elections there.

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3 Comments:

Blogger bobby_b said...

Even though I see no evidence that it's happened, I disagree with you that GOP'ers wouldn't help KE just to make sure that the DFL presents its real face to the state.

I was dismayed when Matt E was forced out. I would have rather seen him make it to the general election, because I think he would ultimately prove to be more of a lead balloon than a coattail for his party. Likewise, I'm happy to see KE get the nod - it simply works to move that elusive "middle point" waaaaayy over to the left.

September 14, 2006  
Blogger Tony said...

I don't feel like re-reading what I wrote to find if I mistyped.

I don't think the GOP is capable of pulling that off in the 5th. They have shown they are unwilling in state level races in MPLS.

Any other part of the state I would say the GOP would try such a thing. But I see no conceivable way of any GOP influence on that race.

September 14, 2006  
Blogger Marty said...

Man, if we could pull off a conspiracy like that, it'd be awesome. I can even see a day, sometime in the future, when GOPers in Minnesota can so forcifully control the party opposite in their primaries.

September 14, 2006  

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