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Tuesday, September 12, 2006

TradeSports Quick Primary Day Update

--posted by Tony Garcia on 9/12/2006

This is just a quick look at the 4 political contracts I have been following on TradeSports. I'm not providing graphs for this post (though if I do an update tonight I will add the graphs then).

What prompted this quick post is some movement on the GOP Maintain Control of the US House contract. There has been some significant movement on this contract. It was previously at 40%. Currently it is at 45%. More significantly is the movement on the bid/ask. The resistance got stronger, but moved up to about 50%. So, it is back to a 50/50 chance. The other side is the support disappeared. So, the price can easily run up to 50% or drop to nothing. This is now an 'uptick' for the GOP...but with no price support I think "cautious optimism" could be a little too much optimism.

The GOP Maintain Control of the US Senate maintains at 80%. The price support is spreading out from around 78% to a range of 70%-78%. More of the market is feeling more confident in the GOP's chances but it is more "tentatively" confident.

Mark Kennedy...very little change on this contract. Still hovering at a 10%-15% chance to win. The good news may be the interest in this contract (which can lead to support and/or resistance) is still dwindling. Two possible causes for this. One, simply no interest because of how certain this race looks. Or, investors are truly uncertain and do not even wish to enter a bid at any price at this time. The former is very bad news for Kennedy. The latter could be very promising news for Kennedy.

Finally, the Governor's race. This COULD be completely different after today. I received a call yesterday from a local state senator. He indicated that his sources are telling him that Jeffers has gained huge momentum and will have a stronger showing today than even they expected. He said that some GOP insiders have said there is a growing chance that Jeffers may even win. Considering the Democrat crossover voters would of course pick Jeffers and fiscal conservatives seem to be growing in numbers in support of Jeffers this is not unfathomable--like a speculative investment. If she wins this contract will experience a sudden drop in price as the general race will be more uncertain in the minds of investors.

That said, there is little to report as an update on the contract. A slight (but insignificant) drop from 80% to 79%. Still no interest in the contract (read above paragraph about Kennedy for interpretation).

If I get the chance tonight I will check these contracts again and any major changes I will put on this post.

********** UPDATE **********
OK, nothing earthshattering changed on TradeSports last night except...
Less interest (nearly no interest) in the Governor's race which is thus susceptible to volatility in either direction.

The GOP Maintain Control of US House contract has had some significant changes over the past 15 hours (since last night). The resistance in prices is stronger now at 50% than yesterday with more at 56%. However, the support has moved up to 48% and the price of the contract has jumped from an open of 46% to 50%. Heavy trading volume (the busiest 2 days in the life of the contract). Meaning...still a 50/50 but the GOP is uptrending right now. Is this an uptrend or a spike interrupting a downtrend? Time will tell.

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