22 August 2006

What is it about August 22nd that has people (including myself) watching the Middle East a little closer than normal?

It is a big day on the Islamic calendar.

While no extra safeguards are in place, U.S. law enforcement are not ignoring the possible significance of tomorrow's date, August 22, a date that marks an important historic event on the Islamic calendar.

Internet websites have been full of speculation that it could be a target date for terrorists in commemoration of the return of the 12th imam, a supposed day of reckoning for Shiites.
...
This year, August 22 marks the holy day on the Islamic calendar that is the day of reckoning for Shiites. Some Shiite sects believe that August 22 could correspond to the end of the world. And just today, after much hype, Iran has announced that it will continue to develop its nuclear program. To followers of Iranian President Ahmadinejad, this is a well-timed affront to Israel, the United States and the world. The United Nations had given Iran until the end of the month to respond, but Ahmadinejad had made it clear to all Iranians and the world that he intended to respond on the eve of August 22.

So, yes, 8/22/06 could be a BIG day in history. To clarify my position...I think it is a possible beginning of bad stuff. Not like 9/11 where we immediately know it happened. I think it will be like 6/28/1914...looking back we will see it as the starting point.

Keep in mind that Iran's self-imposed deadling is 8/22/06 regarding the "stop enriching Uranium offer" which Iran has said it would decline. I have read, but have not yet confirmed with a news source, that Iran made it official today...they are declining any deal the requires them to stop enriching Uranium. This means sanctions could be initiated as early as tomorrow, 8/22/06.

Iran this past weekend began wargames/simulations testing missile and demonstrating their new "defensive" strategy. And in their mind if we start sanctions, etc their reactions will be entirely defensive, even if they lob the first explosive.

All in all it is like looking at a Texas Hold 'Em table, seeing someone betting big up to the very last bet...getting ready to make the final bet...and knowing he has talked big, but rarely actually bluffed.
...on the table are the A-K-Q of a suit. Do you consider the ever growing realistic outcome that the big-betting person is holding a winning hand...either the other two cards of the flush, or a J-10, or even the J-10 of the same suit? Do you look hard and watch it closely? Do you watch how everyone is reacting, what their reads may be? Hell yes. This can be the big take down pot for either you or him.

That is 8/22 and Iran. Look close, watch everything around the table. You bet.

End of the world? Maybe, but I say that more in jest. In all seriousness I say 'likely not'...depends on how much you think all of these actions are lining up with the various prophecies of various theologies. World War III? I think it is very likely...but, I'm not willing to put money on it. I'm just very aware and making sure the family knows what to do in the event of an emergency. Is it the end of the world? I say it is, in jest. Is it the beginning of something ugly? Yeah, could be. I think it is folly to deny the possibility and that it is folly to act as if it is a certainty.

The cards are lining up and I believe it is time to see the "down cards". Vigilence and caution.