Academy Awards
--posted by Tony Garcia on 12/15/2005
This TradeSports update relates to the Academy Awards. I know, I know, the nominations are not even out yet. This gives you an idea of what the leading candidates are for the nominees.
Each contract price is based on a percentage of $10. It also gives you the market's opinion on the film's chance of winning Best Picture (laugh).
Brokeback Mountain: 40%
any other unnamed film: 25.0%
Munich: 21.0%
King Kong: 16.0%
Walk The Line: 15.0%
Good Night and Good Luck: 15.0%
Cinderella Man: 12.0%
Constant Gardener: 12.0%
Crash: 12.0%
History of Violence: 11.0%
Kindom of Heaven: 10.0%
Memoirs of a Geisha: 7.0%
Capote: 6.0%
Match Point: 5.0%
Mrs. Henderson Presents: 5.0%
New World: 5.0%
Producers: 5.0%
Syriana: 5.0%
All the King's Men: 0.0%
Jarhead: 0.0%
North Country: 0.0%
Pride & Prejudice: 0.0%
Top 3 Best Actress contracts:
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line): 22.0%
Zi Yi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha): 12.0%
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents): 10.0%
There is no trading yet on the Best Actor contracts.
Other updates:
Alito's confirmation (and change since last update on 11/21).
Alito confirmation: 92.7% (+ 2.8%)
Alito 40+ votes: 99.8% (+ .9%)
Alito 50+ votes: 93.9% (- .3%)
Alito 60+ votes: 65.9% (+ .4%)
Alito 70+ votes: 16.7% (+ 2.5%)
Alito 80+ votes: 2.5% (- 4.0%)
Alito 90+ votes: 5.5% (+ 1.0%)
At this point I would guess about 57 votes. The action on the 70+ could indicate a little softening from the moderates.
Final update is the Colts to win the Super Bowl. That is at 55.3% (+ 13.3%). I am actually invested in this one and my investment was at 20.9%. This means that for every contract I am up $3.40 (bought at $2.09 per contract and current price is $5.53 per contract). If the Colts do win the Super Bowl I will have made $7.91 per contract as they would all cash out at $10.00 each. That assumes that I will hold onto them that long. ;)
6 Comments:
uh, pretend I'm 5-years old...
...what do you mean?
She's working on an answer for you.
Meanwhile, interesting on the Colts, who are 5-9 to win the championship on SportsBook, which should put the price around $6.40. You have to hold that contract right now.
Giants are 17-1, in case you were wondering. Funny, I don't see the Niners anywhere on that board...
The 49ers are in the most important race of the year: The Reggie Bush Sweepstakes. They are one game behind Houston, play Houston to close the season and the tie-breaker is strenth of schedule (weaker SoS gets earlier pick). The 49ers have Arizona & St Louis helping to drag down their SoS...while Houston has Jacksonville & Indy boosting their SoS.
Reese Witherspoon? Oh God, this means the people on Tradesports are jsut as dumb as everyone else.
No, it means the people on TradeSports understand how dumb everyone else is.
Technically, New World and All the King's Men would have to be 0%, as they're not opening until 2006.
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