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Thursday, December 29, 2005

Reggie Bush Sweepstakes preview

--posted by Tony Garcia on 12/29/2005

Many of you visiting this site are wondering, "What does my team need in order to 'earn' the #1 pick?"

First you have to understand the tiebreaking process for the draft. The very first step obviously is the record. The worse the winning percentage the earlier the team will draft. Next is the strength of schedule (SoS). The lower the SoS the earlier the draft pick. This is simply the combined win-loss percentage of all of the opponents of the team this season. If there is still a tie then you go to head-to-head, division record (if in the same division), conference record (if in the same conference) which is also known as Wild-Card tie breakers and so on (percentage against common games, etc).

Now, for the team by team.
If Houston loses to San Francisco they get the #1. That win would be devastating pushing San Francisco to #7. If Houston loses they could drop as far as #4.

New Orleans has the inside track on anyone they tie with. Their SoS is .507 which is significantly lower than anyone else. If New Orleans loses and Houston wins then the Saints should have the #1 pick. A win could drop them as far as #6 pick.

Green Bay's only shot is if New Orleans beats Tampa Bay and Houston beats San Francisco and Green Bay loses to Seattle. The worst Green Bay can do is the #6 pick.

New York needs to lose against Buffalo while Houston wins, Green Bay wins and New Orleans wins. A win can push New York as far as the #7 pick.

San Francisco realistically can get #2 at best. For that they need to lose to Houston. At that point the SoS is too high to get #1 from anyone at 3-13 so they would need New York to beat Buffalo, New Orleans to be Tampa Bay and Green Bay to beat Seattle. By losing to Houston the worst San Francisco can do is the #5 pick. To get the #1 pick requires some horrific mathematics. While all of the other teams must win (New York, Green Bay, New Orleans and Houston) San Francisco's cumulative opponents must win 3 more games than Houston's opponents. (Indianapolis over Arizona would help this a lot, Pittsburgh over Detroit and Green Bay over Seattle would help the cause also.)

One thing to consider is which teams need something more than a running back. Hard to imagine, yes, but that is also possible.


Blogger Benny said...

Wow great writeup about the possibilities. My head is spinning though just trying to think of who needs to do what to win.

It's been awhile, I think, since there's been so much talk about "losing" the last game so you get the #1 pick. Maybe it's cause of Reggie. Or maybe it's just my bad memory.

Sports Pulse

December 30, 2005  
Blogger Tony said...

I think it has been a while. There is not often the three factors that we have this year:
1) So many teams in the mix for #1
2) A head-above-shoulders running back (other positions do not typically have the ability to have an immediate impact).
3) A season finale with 2 of the worst teams facing.

This year is unique in the same sense as the great QB class that had Elway & Marino.

December 30, 2005  
Blogger dolphinfan said...

The race for last place is more exciting than the race for first in the NFL.

December 30, 2005  
Blogger Tony said...

I wonder if the front office of the NFL is jumping for joy. Now they will get ratings for the games with playoff potential teams AND for Race for Reggie Bush teams.

December 30, 2005  

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