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Friday, September 15, 2006

Movement on TradeSports

--posted by Tony Garcia on 9/15/2006

This is an update on two of the four TradeSports contracts I have been following. Some substantial movement has occurred. One continues a long trend and the other is solidifying a new trend. First the old trend.
Kennedy to win US Senate

I have been putting the graphs for the prices in previous posts. This time I am putting the current Order Book. The bad news for Kennedy is that the contract is currently reflecting a 10% chance of winning. The worse indicator is that there was a flurry of activity early yesterday which drove the price up to 19%...and then the same volume of activity in one trade dropping the price down to 10%. There is virtually no support for the price.
Bid (your price to Sell)
Qty Price
3 10.0

Offer (your price to Buy)
Price Qty
17.0 1
20.0 10
23.0 16
50.0 10
Generally a big spread (difference between the 10.0 bid and 17.0 offer) is not a good sign. Tweleve times as many contracts for sale than being requested is also not a sign of market confidence.

GOP maintain control of US House

There was a sudden uptick on Wednesday in this contract and I wanted to see if it was a blip or an actual upward trend. I think, though it is only 2 days, the likelihood is it is an actual upward trend.

First of all the trading volume over this week has been easily the busiest in the life of this contract. Heavy trading generally translates into interest in the contract (or stock)...escpecially if the volume is sustained.

The contract price was barely holding onto the 40%-45%. As of this moment it is at 53.5%. The Order Book is as follows:
Bid (your price to Sell)
Qty Price
60 53.0
2 52.6
3 52.5
5 52.2
1 52.1
10 50.6
1 50.5
2 50.3
3 50.1
20 50.0
5 48.2
2 48.1
146 48.0
3 46.4
150 46.0

Offer (your price to Buy)
Price Qty
55.8 3
55.9 7
56.0 1
56.4 10
56.5 50
56.6 1
56.8 10
56.9 2
57.0 100
57.5 100
59.5 11
60.0 110
61.0 11
62.0 1
63.0 1
The strong price support is at 46.0%-48.0% and the strong price resistance is at 57.0%-57.5%. Without getting to much more complicated this means the possible range of price is 46.0% to 57.5%.

The real bottom line interpretation is that the market is again believing that the control of the House is up for grabs but leaning towards a GOP advantage. It is fair to not that none of the actual trades I have seen have been outside of the range of "50/50" which is between 45.0% to 55.0%. More positive for the GOP is that the downtrend of the past 2 1/2 months seems to have reversed. How far upward this goes is to be determined. My guess is this contract will stay in the toss-up range until the end...meaning, in the minds of the market, control of the House is very much in play and the political momentum is currently swinging towards the GOP.

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