MLB Playoff 2006

Here we go-o-o-o-o...

AMERICAN LEAGUE
vs
Tigers are slumping, young & frustrated. Yankees are high-paid super stars and have home field advantage. Pinstripes Power will make the Tigers look like kitty cats. Yankees will advance and TradeSports has the Yankees at a 73.2% chance of winning.

vs
Twins are hot. Athletics are not. Twins pitching should be overpowering in Games 1 & 3 or 4. This will be a close series and the Twins will move on. TradeSports is slightly confident in the Twins: 60.9%.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
vs
Dodgers are hot (won 7 in a row) and the Mets are the best team in the NL. The Dodgers and Mets had a pretty good and close series in August and I expect this one to be close also. The Mets are going to be without Pedro Martinez. I am hoping for the Dodgers...in fact, I will say they will move on. TradeSports disagrees, they say the Mets have 60.0% chance. Of note, this is the weakest favorite on TradeSports.

vs
The Cardinals backed into their spot on the last day of the season...a spot that should have been locked up long before. The Cardinals went from having home field in this round to be the worst record of this year's playoff teams. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10. I think the Padres will move on, easily. TradeSports agrees: 61.0%.

MLB Playoff update

The AL teams are known. All that is left is some positional jockeying. The four teams are Oakland (AL West winner), New York (AL East winner), Detroit and Minnesota (AL Central and Wild Card winners). Barring an 0-fer run by the Yankees, Tigers and Twins coupled with Oakland running the table on the rest of the season, Oakland will be the #3 seed. They will go against the AL Central winner. The AL Central winner will get home field advantage. The Yankees will get the AL Wild Card winner and home field advantage.

Before I add anything else to this picture I want to explain my thoughts on the Wild Card. The Wild Card is nothing more than a race for #4 (or in the NFL for #5 & #6). I believe the greatest races in baseball history are those where the fight for #1 was in the balance. This year in the AL is a great example.

I first read about what I call the "Costas Plan". Basically, no Wild Cards would exist and the Division winner with the best record would get a 1st round bye. I like it. It would restore a huge incentive to be #1. It would remove the end of season race being for 4th best. I know it is not a reality because it would mean fewer markets having interest at the end of the season, but it is what I believe would be best for baseball.

This year with the Costas Plan you would have TWO races in progress with large implications. First is the battle between the Twins and the Tigers. The loser would get to spend October at home watching the winner play. The other battle would be for the first round by. That battle, as of this moment, would be between the Yankees, the Twins and the Tigers. Much more exciting than what we have now...positional jockeying. And, with positional jockeying being the sole incentive the teams involved may be very inclined to play rookies and prospects a little more (blegh).

Back to the here and now.

TradeSports is leaning towards the Tigers finishing with the Division (76.5). The AL Pennant: Yankees (44.5%), Twins (21.5%), Tigers (19.0%) and Athletics (18.0%). Smart early money, of course, is on the Yankees, but beyond that 'premium' being added there is no clear favorite, and the Yankees are not even in the "very possible" 45-55 range.

Now to the National League.
The Mets have clinched the #1 seed in the NL. They will face the Wild Card winner unless the Phillies get the Wild Card. In that case the Mets will face the lower of the other Division winners (likely to be St Louis). The Mets will have home field advantage.

The Central appeared to be a lock this time last week. But then the Cardinals went on a seven game losing streak. In the meantime the Astros went on a seven game winning streak and picked up, well, seven games. It is a battle again! As the Astros are proving, never say never, but their chance of winning the Wild Card are slim (0.3%) as they need to make up 4 games on the Dodgers, 3 on the Phillies, while only having 5 left to play.

Anyway, if for some insane reason you last week shorted contracts for Cardinals to win the NL Central or bought Astros win the NL Central then you should be very pleased. The Cardinals have now fallen to 73.0% (still a very strong possibility) and the Astros have risen to 24.0% (an underdog but not a long, long shot).

The NL West is the big battle. The Padres own a two game lead and will very likely win the division (86.5%). The Dodgers are not completely out of it, being only 2 back, but I would not put money on them at this point (15.5%).

In the Wild Card race the Dodgers are being given the advantage on TradeSports (57.0%) over the Phillies (33.0%).

Again, under the Costas plan the big races would be even better because the loser of the Padres-Dodgers race would be out...no consolation prize of "Wild Card". All or nothing...much better race is the result.

Back to the NL...the odds for the pennant: Mets (40.0%), Cardinals (19.0%), Padres (17.4%), Dodgers (12.5%), Phillies (10.5%) and the Astros (5.0%).

Coming Down the Home Stretch

With most of the playoff teams having just 10 games remaining now is a good time to look at the TradeSports markets.

NL WEST
The Dodgers and the Padres are locked in a battle for the lead. Currently there is 1/2 game seperate them. The Padres have 10 games left (and the lead), the Dodgers have 9 games left. The Giants are practically out of the race (10 games remaining). The Padres & Dodgers both have a magic number of 6 over San Francisco.

What is the market saying? 57.8% for Padres to win the division and 43.8% for the Dodgers. Both within the "toss-up" range, but leaning towards San Diego.

NL CENTRAL
Really, this is almost a waste of time to even write. The Cardinals (11 games remaining) have a magic number of 5 over the Reds (10 games remaining) & the Astros (10 games remaining).

The market has the Cardinals at a 99.4% chance of taking the division.

NL WILD CARD
The only three teams in contention for the Wild Card are the Dodgers, the Padres and the Phillies (10 games remaining). As of this moment the Dodgers have a 1/2 game lead over the Phillies and a magic number of 10. The market is giving the edge to Philadelphia (52.0%) over Los Angeles (26.9%) and San Diego (18.0%).

NL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the NL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Philadelphia vs St Louis
San Diego vs New York Mets

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment is would look like this:
Los Angeles vs New York
San Diego vs St Louis

And to win the NL Pennant...
New York (40.5%)
St Louis (23.0%)
San Diego (13.2%)
Los Angeles (12.2%)
Philadelphia (11.0%)

AL WEST
Another division where the time to report is more wasted than useful. Oakland (10 games remaining) has a 7 game lead and a magic number of 4. The market also reflects this certainty giving the Athletics a 99.3% chance to win the division.

AL CENTRAL
This one is so close...it actually changed while I was getting the quotes (Twins down-ticked).

The Tigers (11 games remaining) hold a 1/2 game lead over the Twins (10 games remaining). That tranlates to a magic number of 10. The Tigers have been sliding and the Twins have been hot, but this may be neutralized by the Tigers easier schedule...marginally. (DET remaining: 7 vs KC, 3 vs Tor; MIN remaining 3 vs Bal, 4 vs KC, 4 vs Chg.)

The market also reflects this slight advantage giving Detroit a 54.2% chance to win the division compared to Minnesota's 46.2%.

AL WILD CARD
The Twins hold a 5 1/2 game lead over Chicago (9 games remaining) for the Wild Card. If between now & next Thursday Chicago can pick up 1 game on the Twins then they have a mathematical chance (requiring a sweep to end the season). The market does not think much of that happening. They have the Twins at a 55.5% chance to win the Wild Card, the White Sox are next on the list at 1.1%.

AL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the AL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Minnesota vs New York Yankees
Oakland vs Detroit

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment the pairings would be the same.

And to win the AL Pennant...
New York (44.0%)
Minnesota (23.0%)
Oakland (18.2%)
Detroit (17.7%)
Chicago (1.1%)

WORLD SERIES WINNER
Yankees 30.0%
Mets 19.0%
Twins 12.7%
Athletics 10.0%
Tigers 8.6%
Cardinals 8.6%
Padres 4.9%
Dodgers 4.8%
Phillies 3.9%
White Sox 0.9%

Slamming their way back into 1st

I'm going to watch the video archives of last night's Padres-Dodgers game. I just cannot believe what I am reading.

Bottom of the 9th, the Dodgers were down 9-5. Winning this game would give them the NL West lead again.

First batter up...Jeff Kent. Home Run on a 1-0 pitch. 9-6, but a long way to go.

Next batter...JD Drew. Home Run on a 2-1 pitch. 9-7, and the gap is narrowing.

Next batter...Russell Martin. Home Run on the first pitch from Trevor Hoffman. 9-8, and we have a game.

Next batter...Marlon Anderson. Home Run on the first pitch. 9-9...

Yep, back-to-back-to-back-to-back Home Runs. Only the 4th time in MLB history that has been done in a single inning. (Twins fans, you'll love this...) The last time a team hit four consecutive homers was on May 2, 1964, when the Minnesota Twins accomplished the feat against Kansas City in the 11th inning.

Then in the 10th the Dodgers came up trailing 10-9. Lead off hitter Kenny Lofton walked.

Next batter...Nomar Garciaparra. Home Run on a 3-1 pitch. 11-10...Dodgers win, Dodgers win...and they are again in 1st place.

What is incredible is Hoffman had not blown a save against the Dodgers since April 2001. He converted 55 of 57 saves in his career against the Dodgers and 24 straight.

What makes this MORE incredible is that Nomar's HR was the Dodgers 7th in the game. 7 HR by any team in a game is incredible, but consider that the Dodgers entered the game last in the NL in home runs. (They are 3rd in the NL in scoring, however.)

I'm not believing what I'm reading, so I will be watching the video archive tonight so see it.

********** UPDATE **********
Thinking ahead to the playoffs...
...what would be the best Divisional Round matchup for the Dodgers?
Their records this season against:
NL EAST WINNER
New York Mets... 3-4

NL CENTRAL LEADER
St Louis Cardinals... 0-7

NL WILD CARD CONTENDERS within 5 games (in order of present Wild Card Standing)
San Diego Padres...5-13 (can't play in the Divisional, but maybe in the NLCS)
Philadelphia Phillies... 4-3
San Francisco Giants... 10-6 (can't play in the Divisional, but maybe in the NLCS...with 3 more games coming)
Florida Marlins... 5-1

********** UPDATE **********
Added some information that I picked up while listening to the TV archive. Gotta love Vin Scully!!