MLB League Championships 2006

Well, I am 0-4 so far. Admittedly I did pick the Mets to lose against better judgement. So let's look as the LC Series.

ALCS
vs
The Athletics were the first team to complete their 1st round sweep. They did so in convincing fashion. Part of this is because the Twins overachieving finally ended, part of this is because, well, Oakland is a talented and capable team. The Tigers have been considered one of the better teams in the League. Except for two HUGE slumps they would have run away with the AL's best record. Instead they ended up losing the division and nearly losing a playoff spot. They are back on track and demonstrated that with their dismissal of Yankees. Good series coming, maybe, but I am picking the Tigers in 6. TradesSports investors have the series at as a toss-up.

NLCS
vs
The Cardinals limped into the playoffs, the Mets coasted. The Cardinals fought for their 4-game victory. The Mets cruised to a sweep. I really do not see how the Cardinals can pull this one out. Mets in 5...if the Cardinals are lucky. TradeSports investors are not so confident (since they got burned in the first round as well). They have the Mets with a 62% chance of winning the NL Pennant.

As for the World Series the TradeSports investors are undecided on who will win the World Series. The Tigers, Mets & Athletics are all listed at about a 27% chance while the Cardinals are at a 17% chance.

Live Blogging from Game 2

Almost didn't come today, but I am here. Oakland scored just as I logged into the Twins Territory wireless network.

Middle of the 5th. Coming up is Tyner. The stadium seems more packed than yesterday. We'll see if bears true when they announce the attendance. There is more energy today than yesterday.

It is interesting how quickly the energy leaves the building. As much as I hate to say it someone needs to start the wave so there will be at least some noise.

"Ice cold beer." You can hear them from all around the stadium it is so quiet. Well, until a chop single by Castillo.

The collective "oohs" and "aahs" are pretty cool to listen to. Better with 55,000 than with 25,000 at a normal game.

Great infield hit by Punto. And the crowd finally has some energy. And it is good!!

Back to back homers. The first one was 411 feet and the second was 426. I love how they announce those to the press box within moments.

The electricity now if incredible. Of course, my stomach made me miss the first home run...but the $5.50 dog was worth it.

2-2, B6 and the new Oakland pitcher is Calero. The crowd chanting "Let's go Tyner." Tyner is walked. And then he steals 2nd.

Question: T7, 2-2 and again the place is silent...like a stadium in the pre-game state. Why is that?

Just announced...the back-to-back HR are the 2nd time ever in Twins postseason history. The last time was Oct 4, 1970 against Baltimore...by Killebrew & Oliva.

Foul ball...and a hell-of-a catch by some fan in the back row of section 117. And a pitching change for the Twins...Reyes is coming into the game.

Inside the park home run by Kotsay. Boy did he lose his wheels 1/2 way between 3rd & home. The 2nd inside the park home run in Oakland postseason history. The first one was by Durham on 10/4/02...vs the Twins. And the first one I have seen in person.

OK...when the bottom of the 8th comes up. Unless it is tied up here I will end the live blogging so I can get ready to move down to the post-game conference.

Today's attendance...55,710.

Here we go...bottom of the 8th and coming up is Cuddyer. I'm a little disappointed in the noise from the crowd...moderate cheering and then dead silence for the 1st pitch. C'mon, people...scream! Keep screaming!!

Two quick line drive outs and the crowd is more sedate. Torii dodges a bullet...foul ball JUST out of reach. And strike 2 reaching. Strike 3 reaching...and booing! (The booing was louder than the cheering to start the inning.

Well, that is it for the live blogging. Cheers...and maybe I can again ask a question at the post-game conference.

Oakland 3, Twins 2

Unfortunately for me it was my first time roaming the Metrodome with access. My boss was supposed to be there with me but because of computer issues yesterday he had too much work to get caught up on. That left me by myself to 'look like I've been there before' while also learning the ropes. My boss was supposed to bring the pens & notepads. Since he was not going to show up that left me to improvise. And so what...I was in for quite the experience.



Two things that struck me before the game even started related to the fans. Such potential for "loudness" gone to waste for too much of the game. The full 24-man roster was introduced and when Mauer's name was called there was thunder inside the dome. It lasted long enough to drown out the next several names. Same thing for Lew Ford with the defeaning "Le-w-w-w-w-w-w-w". But then the announcer stated that "we will be live on ESPN soon so let's show them what we are made of. Make some noise." There was half-thunder for about 10 seconds and then near silence, golf clapping and the shouting of the vendor from the other side of the stadium. After the "We're going to win, Twins" rouser there was half-thunder again...for about 20 seconds.

The game was much better. Two great pitching performances were provided. Barry Zito and Johan Santana were fabulous and the shame was that one of them had to lose.



If you are reading this then you have already heard about the obvious things. Zito, Santana, Frank Thomas' 2 home runs (and being within a few feet of a 3rd homer), Kotsay's catch. Maybe even the fact that Zito had a no-hitter in the 5th before White hit his 2 out double. Maybe you already heard about Santana's post-season career high 8 Ks.

What caught my attention was a sub-theme to the pitching duel. Kotsay struck out in the 1st and 3rd inning but in doing so consumed 13 pitches. How significant is that? Two plate appearances and he took up over 10% of Sanatana's pitch total. In a close game that can be a ton. Zito had a very shaky 1st & 2nd inning (something Ken Macha mentioned in the post-game interview). The control was lacking, pitches were up and the curve was not striking. Yet Castillo getting caught stealing (and it was really not as close as the crowd thought) was huge. And somehow Zito seemed to not be able to control many of the 8 pitches he threw in the 2nd inning...yet he managed a strikeout and two ground outs.

Pitch counts can be overrated in the scope of a full game, but pitch counts in an inning are more impacting. Low pitch counts seem to really boost a pitcher's morale while 20+ indicate control issues and yield runs. Count the number of 20+ innings and you will find the losing team. Seems obvious, but the reason is not necessarily the number of batters faced (as the obvious would lead you to believe) but the lack of control.

Santana had two of these innings. Once he gave up 2 runs. The other he was fortunate to come away with none. Tough innings.

That is what you did not hear anywhere else. Those are the little things that make the difference in close games like this. After watching today's game in person I will say that the keys for the Twins will be keeping Kotsay from driving up the pitch counts and pitching further away from Thomas. Thomas is seeing the ball well...well enough to be hitting homeruns on pitches that he made adjustments for at contact. Thomas touched the ball 6 times. 2 were home runs, 1 was a hard liner into right field (where he almost was thrown out at first), 1 foul that was literally feet away from being another home run and a fly to right that was fairly deep (well, relatively speaking in a park with a short right field fence). He is seeing the ball too well to give pitches to him in this series.



That is what the Twins will need to focus on in the next few games.


This was Barry Zito and Frank Thomas...but my battery was dying and so the picture didn't turn out. DAMN.

MLB Playoff 2006

Here we go-o-o-o-o...

AMERICAN LEAGUE
vs
Tigers are slumping, young & frustrated. Yankees are high-paid super stars and have home field advantage. Pinstripes Power will make the Tigers look like kitty cats. Yankees will advance and TradeSports has the Yankees at a 73.2% chance of winning.

vs
Twins are hot. Athletics are not. Twins pitching should be overpowering in Games 1 & 3 or 4. This will be a close series and the Twins will move on. TradeSports is slightly confident in the Twins: 60.9%.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
vs
Dodgers are hot (won 7 in a row) and the Mets are the best team in the NL. The Dodgers and Mets had a pretty good and close series in August and I expect this one to be close also. The Mets are going to be without Pedro Martinez. I am hoping for the Dodgers...in fact, I will say they will move on. TradeSports disagrees, they say the Mets have 60.0% chance. Of note, this is the weakest favorite on TradeSports.

vs
The Cardinals backed into their spot on the last day of the season...a spot that should have been locked up long before. The Cardinals went from having home field in this round to be the worst record of this year's playoff teams. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10. I think the Padres will move on, easily. TradeSports agrees: 61.0%.

Got my ticket

Well, the Twins playoff series opens tomorrow afternoon against the Oakland Athletics. I will be there with KNSI Sports Director, Don Lyons. The credentials will be picked up today.

W00t. Playoff baseball...here I come.

MLB Playoff update

The AL teams are known. All that is left is some positional jockeying. The four teams are Oakland (AL West winner), New York (AL East winner), Detroit and Minnesota (AL Central and Wild Card winners). Barring an 0-fer run by the Yankees, Tigers and Twins coupled with Oakland running the table on the rest of the season, Oakland will be the #3 seed. They will go against the AL Central winner. The AL Central winner will get home field advantage. The Yankees will get the AL Wild Card winner and home field advantage.

Before I add anything else to this picture I want to explain my thoughts on the Wild Card. The Wild Card is nothing more than a race for #4 (or in the NFL for #5 & #6). I believe the greatest races in baseball history are those where the fight for #1 was in the balance. This year in the AL is a great example.

I first read about what I call the "Costas Plan". Basically, no Wild Cards would exist and the Division winner with the best record would get a 1st round bye. I like it. It would restore a huge incentive to be #1. It would remove the end of season race being for 4th best. I know it is not a reality because it would mean fewer markets having interest at the end of the season, but it is what I believe would be best for baseball.

This year with the Costas Plan you would have TWO races in progress with large implications. First is the battle between the Twins and the Tigers. The loser would get to spend October at home watching the winner play. The other battle would be for the first round by. That battle, as of this moment, would be between the Yankees, the Twins and the Tigers. Much more exciting than what we have now...positional jockeying. And, with positional jockeying being the sole incentive the teams involved may be very inclined to play rookies and prospects a little more (blegh).

Back to the here and now.

TradeSports is leaning towards the Tigers finishing with the Division (76.5). The AL Pennant: Yankees (44.5%), Twins (21.5%), Tigers (19.0%) and Athletics (18.0%). Smart early money, of course, is on the Yankees, but beyond that 'premium' being added there is no clear favorite, and the Yankees are not even in the "very possible" 45-55 range.

Now to the National League.
The Mets have clinched the #1 seed in the NL. They will face the Wild Card winner unless the Phillies get the Wild Card. In that case the Mets will face the lower of the other Division winners (likely to be St Louis). The Mets will have home field advantage.

The Central appeared to be a lock this time last week. But then the Cardinals went on a seven game losing streak. In the meantime the Astros went on a seven game winning streak and picked up, well, seven games. It is a battle again! As the Astros are proving, never say never, but their chance of winning the Wild Card are slim (0.3%) as they need to make up 4 games on the Dodgers, 3 on the Phillies, while only having 5 left to play.

Anyway, if for some insane reason you last week shorted contracts for Cardinals to win the NL Central or bought Astros win the NL Central then you should be very pleased. The Cardinals have now fallen to 73.0% (still a very strong possibility) and the Astros have risen to 24.0% (an underdog but not a long, long shot).

The NL West is the big battle. The Padres own a two game lead and will very likely win the division (86.5%). The Dodgers are not completely out of it, being only 2 back, but I would not put money on them at this point (15.5%).

In the Wild Card race the Dodgers are being given the advantage on TradeSports (57.0%) over the Phillies (33.0%).

Again, under the Costas plan the big races would be even better because the loser of the Padres-Dodgers race would be out...no consolation prize of "Wild Card". All or nothing...much better race is the result.

Back to the NL...the odds for the pennant: Mets (40.0%), Cardinals (19.0%), Padres (17.4%), Dodgers (12.5%), Phillies (10.5%) and the Astros (5.0%).

Coming Down the Home Stretch

With most of the playoff teams having just 10 games remaining now is a good time to look at the TradeSports markets.

NL WEST
The Dodgers and the Padres are locked in a battle for the lead. Currently there is 1/2 game seperate them. The Padres have 10 games left (and the lead), the Dodgers have 9 games left. The Giants are practically out of the race (10 games remaining). The Padres & Dodgers both have a magic number of 6 over San Francisco.

What is the market saying? 57.8% for Padres to win the division and 43.8% for the Dodgers. Both within the "toss-up" range, but leaning towards San Diego.

NL CENTRAL
Really, this is almost a waste of time to even write. The Cardinals (11 games remaining) have a magic number of 5 over the Reds (10 games remaining) & the Astros (10 games remaining).

The market has the Cardinals at a 99.4% chance of taking the division.

NL WILD CARD
The only three teams in contention for the Wild Card are the Dodgers, the Padres and the Phillies (10 games remaining). As of this moment the Dodgers have a 1/2 game lead over the Phillies and a magic number of 10. The market is giving the edge to Philadelphia (52.0%) over Los Angeles (26.9%) and San Diego (18.0%).

NL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the NL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Philadelphia vs St Louis
San Diego vs New York Mets

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment is would look like this:
Los Angeles vs New York
San Diego vs St Louis

And to win the NL Pennant...
New York (40.5%)
St Louis (23.0%)
San Diego (13.2%)
Los Angeles (12.2%)
Philadelphia (11.0%)

AL WEST
Another division where the time to report is more wasted than useful. Oakland (10 games remaining) has a 7 game lead and a magic number of 4. The market also reflects this certainty giving the Athletics a 99.3% chance to win the division.

AL CENTRAL
This one is so close...it actually changed while I was getting the quotes (Twins down-ticked).

The Tigers (11 games remaining) hold a 1/2 game lead over the Twins (10 games remaining). That tranlates to a magic number of 10. The Tigers have been sliding and the Twins have been hot, but this may be neutralized by the Tigers easier schedule...marginally. (DET remaining: 7 vs KC, 3 vs Tor; MIN remaining 3 vs Bal, 4 vs KC, 4 vs Chg.)

The market also reflects this slight advantage giving Detroit a 54.2% chance to win the division compared to Minnesota's 46.2%.

AL WILD CARD
The Twins hold a 5 1/2 game lead over Chicago (9 games remaining) for the Wild Card. If between now & next Thursday Chicago can pick up 1 game on the Twins then they have a mathematical chance (requiring a sweep to end the season). The market does not think much of that happening. They have the Twins at a 55.5% chance to win the Wild Card, the White Sox are next on the list at 1.1%.

AL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the AL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Minnesota vs New York Yankees
Oakland vs Detroit

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment the pairings would be the same.

And to win the AL Pennant...
New York (44.0%)
Minnesota (23.0%)
Oakland (18.2%)
Detroit (17.7%)
Chicago (1.1%)

WORLD SERIES WINNER
Yankees 30.0%
Mets 19.0%
Twins 12.7%
Athletics 10.0%
Tigers 8.6%
Cardinals 8.6%
Padres 4.9%
Dodgers 4.8%
Phillies 3.9%
White Sox 0.9%