2006 World Series

OK, so I'm a little late with this. But after 40 rain delays it was easy to put the World Series on the back burner.

The Cardinals won their 10th Championship in five games. SS David Eckstein won the MVP honors batting .364 in the Series.

World Series 2006

The Detroit Tigers and the St Louis Cardinals are going to meet in the World Series for the 3rd time. Call this the rubber match of Series. The Tigers beat the Cardinals in 1968 in seven games and the Cardinals beat the Tigers in seven games back in 1934.

Detroit is the far superior team. But somehow the Cardinals keep finding ways to survive. With 11 games remaining the Cardinals led the NL Central by more than 5 games. They simply needed to win 45% of their remaining schedule EVEN IF the rest of the division won-out their 10 games. And somehow the Cardinals made the race come down to the very last day...winning their division only because Houston lost 2 out of 3 to Atlanta...the 2nd of those losses on the last day of the season.

Yes, Detroit was also the victim of an incredible comeback. They blew a 10 game lead over 2nd place. They blew a 12.5 game lead over the eventual division winner. They from game 34 through game 161 they were in 1st place and had to settle instead for the Wild Card. They could have won the division with a win over the lowly Royals to close the season...instead they were swept.

The Cardinals and the Tigers both dominated in their Divisional Series matchups, both winning in 4 games. The differences showed in the LCS. The Tigers swept their series. The Cardinals took it literally to the end...winning in 7 games and winning the 7th game by scoring in the 9th inning.

Detroit's pitching is superior. St Louis' bats are better. Pitching is generally the key in the playoffs.

TradeSports has the Tigers as a 2:1 favorite (66.7% chance to win). I think the Tigers will win in 5.

MLB League Championships 2006

Well, I am 0-4 so far. Admittedly I did pick the Mets to lose against better judgement. So let's look as the LC Series.

ALCS
vs
The Athletics were the first team to complete their 1st round sweep. They did so in convincing fashion. Part of this is because the Twins overachieving finally ended, part of this is because, well, Oakland is a talented and capable team. The Tigers have been considered one of the better teams in the League. Except for two HUGE slumps they would have run away with the AL's best record. Instead they ended up losing the division and nearly losing a playoff spot. They are back on track and demonstrated that with their dismissal of Yankees. Good series coming, maybe, but I am picking the Tigers in 6. TradesSports investors have the series at as a toss-up.

NLCS
vs
The Cardinals limped into the playoffs, the Mets coasted. The Cardinals fought for their 4-game victory. The Mets cruised to a sweep. I really do not see how the Cardinals can pull this one out. Mets in 5...if the Cardinals are lucky. TradeSports investors are not so confident (since they got burned in the first round as well). They have the Mets with a 62% chance of winning the NL Pennant.

As for the World Series the TradeSports investors are undecided on who will win the World Series. The Tigers, Mets & Athletics are all listed at about a 27% chance while the Cardinals are at a 17% chance.

MLB Playoff 2006

Here we go-o-o-o-o...

AMERICAN LEAGUE
vs
Tigers are slumping, young & frustrated. Yankees are high-paid super stars and have home field advantage. Pinstripes Power will make the Tigers look like kitty cats. Yankees will advance and TradeSports has the Yankees at a 73.2% chance of winning.

vs
Twins are hot. Athletics are not. Twins pitching should be overpowering in Games 1 & 3 or 4. This will be a close series and the Twins will move on. TradeSports is slightly confident in the Twins: 60.9%.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
vs
Dodgers are hot (won 7 in a row) and the Mets are the best team in the NL. The Dodgers and Mets had a pretty good and close series in August and I expect this one to be close also. The Mets are going to be without Pedro Martinez. I am hoping for the Dodgers...in fact, I will say they will move on. TradeSports disagrees, they say the Mets have 60.0% chance. Of note, this is the weakest favorite on TradeSports.

vs
The Cardinals backed into their spot on the last day of the season...a spot that should have been locked up long before. The Cardinals went from having home field in this round to be the worst record of this year's playoff teams. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10. I think the Padres will move on, easily. TradeSports agrees: 61.0%.

MLB Playoff update

The AL teams are known. All that is left is some positional jockeying. The four teams are Oakland (AL West winner), New York (AL East winner), Detroit and Minnesota (AL Central and Wild Card winners). Barring an 0-fer run by the Yankees, Tigers and Twins coupled with Oakland running the table on the rest of the season, Oakland will be the #3 seed. They will go against the AL Central winner. The AL Central winner will get home field advantage. The Yankees will get the AL Wild Card winner and home field advantage.

Before I add anything else to this picture I want to explain my thoughts on the Wild Card. The Wild Card is nothing more than a race for #4 (or in the NFL for #5 & #6). I believe the greatest races in baseball history are those where the fight for #1 was in the balance. This year in the AL is a great example.

I first read about what I call the "Costas Plan". Basically, no Wild Cards would exist and the Division winner with the best record would get a 1st round bye. I like it. It would restore a huge incentive to be #1. It would remove the end of season race being for 4th best. I know it is not a reality because it would mean fewer markets having interest at the end of the season, but it is what I believe would be best for baseball.

This year with the Costas Plan you would have TWO races in progress with large implications. First is the battle between the Twins and the Tigers. The loser would get to spend October at home watching the winner play. The other battle would be for the first round by. That battle, as of this moment, would be between the Yankees, the Twins and the Tigers. Much more exciting than what we have now...positional jockeying. And, with positional jockeying being the sole incentive the teams involved may be very inclined to play rookies and prospects a little more (blegh).

Back to the here and now.

TradeSports is leaning towards the Tigers finishing with the Division (76.5). The AL Pennant: Yankees (44.5%), Twins (21.5%), Tigers (19.0%) and Athletics (18.0%). Smart early money, of course, is on the Yankees, but beyond that 'premium' being added there is no clear favorite, and the Yankees are not even in the "very possible" 45-55 range.

Now to the National League.
The Mets have clinched the #1 seed in the NL. They will face the Wild Card winner unless the Phillies get the Wild Card. In that case the Mets will face the lower of the other Division winners (likely to be St Louis). The Mets will have home field advantage.

The Central appeared to be a lock this time last week. But then the Cardinals went on a seven game losing streak. In the meantime the Astros went on a seven game winning streak and picked up, well, seven games. It is a battle again! As the Astros are proving, never say never, but their chance of winning the Wild Card are slim (0.3%) as they need to make up 4 games on the Dodgers, 3 on the Phillies, while only having 5 left to play.

Anyway, if for some insane reason you last week shorted contracts for Cardinals to win the NL Central or bought Astros win the NL Central then you should be very pleased. The Cardinals have now fallen to 73.0% (still a very strong possibility) and the Astros have risen to 24.0% (an underdog but not a long, long shot).

The NL West is the big battle. The Padres own a two game lead and will very likely win the division (86.5%). The Dodgers are not completely out of it, being only 2 back, but I would not put money on them at this point (15.5%).

In the Wild Card race the Dodgers are being given the advantage on TradeSports (57.0%) over the Phillies (33.0%).

Again, under the Costas plan the big races would be even better because the loser of the Padres-Dodgers race would be out...no consolation prize of "Wild Card". All or nothing...much better race is the result.

Back to the NL...the odds for the pennant: Mets (40.0%), Cardinals (19.0%), Padres (17.4%), Dodgers (12.5%), Phillies (10.5%) and the Astros (5.0%).

Coming Down the Home Stretch

With most of the playoff teams having just 10 games remaining now is a good time to look at the TradeSports markets.

NL WEST
The Dodgers and the Padres are locked in a battle for the lead. Currently there is 1/2 game seperate them. The Padres have 10 games left (and the lead), the Dodgers have 9 games left. The Giants are practically out of the race (10 games remaining). The Padres & Dodgers both have a magic number of 6 over San Francisco.

What is the market saying? 57.8% for Padres to win the division and 43.8% for the Dodgers. Both within the "toss-up" range, but leaning towards San Diego.

NL CENTRAL
Really, this is almost a waste of time to even write. The Cardinals (11 games remaining) have a magic number of 5 over the Reds (10 games remaining) & the Astros (10 games remaining).

The market has the Cardinals at a 99.4% chance of taking the division.

NL WILD CARD
The only three teams in contention for the Wild Card are the Dodgers, the Padres and the Phillies (10 games remaining). As of this moment the Dodgers have a 1/2 game lead over the Phillies and a magic number of 10. The market is giving the edge to Philadelphia (52.0%) over Los Angeles (26.9%) and San Diego (18.0%).

NL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the NL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Philadelphia vs St Louis
San Diego vs New York Mets

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment is would look like this:
Los Angeles vs New York
San Diego vs St Louis

And to win the NL Pennant...
New York (40.5%)
St Louis (23.0%)
San Diego (13.2%)
Los Angeles (12.2%)
Philadelphia (11.0%)

AL WEST
Another division where the time to report is more wasted than useful. Oakland (10 games remaining) has a 7 game lead and a magic number of 4. The market also reflects this certainty giving the Athletics a 99.3% chance to win the division.

AL CENTRAL
This one is so close...it actually changed while I was getting the quotes (Twins down-ticked).

The Tigers (11 games remaining) hold a 1/2 game lead over the Twins (10 games remaining). That tranlates to a magic number of 10. The Tigers have been sliding and the Twins have been hot, but this may be neutralized by the Tigers easier schedule...marginally. (DET remaining: 7 vs KC, 3 vs Tor; MIN remaining 3 vs Bal, 4 vs KC, 4 vs Chg.)

The market also reflects this slight advantage giving Detroit a 54.2% chance to win the division compared to Minnesota's 46.2%.

AL WILD CARD
The Twins hold a 5 1/2 game lead over Chicago (9 games remaining) for the Wild Card. If between now & next Thursday Chicago can pick up 1 game on the Twins then they have a mathematical chance (requiring a sweep to end the season). The market does not think much of that happening. They have the Twins at a 55.5% chance to win the Wild Card, the White Sox are next on the list at 1.1%.

AL PLAYOFFS
So, using the current pricing the AL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Minnesota vs New York Yankees
Oakland vs Detroit

According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment the pairings would be the same.

And to win the AL Pennant...
New York (44.0%)
Minnesota (23.0%)
Oakland (18.2%)
Detroit (17.7%)
Chicago (1.1%)

WORLD SERIES WINNER
Yankees 30.0%
Mets 19.0%
Twins 12.7%
Athletics 10.0%
Tigers 8.6%
Cardinals 8.6%
Padres 4.9%
Dodgers 4.8%
Phillies 3.9%
White Sox 0.9%

MLB 2006 Comeback Player of the Year Finalists

This was announced yesterday via the mlb.com wire...the 2006 Comeback Player of the Year Finalists have been announced. (Yes, I was a little slow to actually post it...sorry.)

The American League finalists are...
1. Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers
2005: .302 AVG, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 17 2B, 38 R
2006*: .296 AVG, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 22 2B, 57 R

2. Corey Patterson - Baltimore Orioles
2005: .215 AVG, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 15 2B, 47 R
2006*: .284 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 13 2B, 54 R

3. Curt Schilling - Boston Red Sox
2005: 8-8 W-L, 5.69 ERA, 87 K, 22 BB, 1.53 WHIP
2006*: 14-4 W-L, 3.78 ERA, 142 K, 20 BB, 1.14 WHIP

4. Rafael Soriano - Seattle Mariners
2005: 7 G, 2.45 ERA, 9 SO, 1 BB, 7.1 IP
2006*: 43 G, 2.06 ERA, 58 SO, 17 BB, 52.1 IP

5. Frank Thomas - Oakland Athletics
2005: 34 G, .219 AVG, 12 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R
2006*: 88 G, .259 AVG, 24 HR, 67 RBI, 45 R

6. Jim Thome - Chicago White Sox
2005: 59 G, .207 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 26 R
2006*: 99 G, .301 AVG, 33 HR, 84 RBI, 83 R

The National League finalists are...
1. Carlos Beltran - New York Mets
2005: .266 AVG, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 83 R, 17 SB
2006*: .281 AVG, 33 HR, 97 RBI, 84 R, 14 SB

2. Joe Borowski - Florida Marlins
2005: 43 G, 4.47 ERA, 27 SO, 12 BB, 0 SV
2006*: 46 G, 3.20 ERA, 43 SO, 20 BB, 22 SV

3. Johnny Estrada - Arizona Diamondbacks
2005: 105 G, .261 AVG, 4 HR, 39 RBI, 31 R
2006*: 86 G, .317 AVG, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 37 R

4. Nomar Garciaparra - Los Angeles Dodgers
2005: 62 G, .283 AVG, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 28 R
2006*: 79 G, .327 AVG, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 60 R

5. Edgar Renteria - Atlanta Braves
2005: .276 AVG, 8 HR, 70 RBI, 100 R, 36 2B
2006*: .311 AVG, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 73 R, 25 2B

6. Scott Rolen - St. Louis Cardinals
2005: 56 G, .235 AVG, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 28 R
2006*: 98 G, .316 AVG, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 68 R

When will we know who won?

The American League and National League winners will be announced during the 2006 MLB postseason. To further involve fans in the selection process, Viagra will conduct an online sweepstakes in conjunction with the "Major League Baseball Comeback Player of the Year Award Presented by Viagra® (sildenafil citrate)." As part of the program, one lucky sweepstakes winner will have the opportunity to throw out a ceremonial first pitch at a 2006 MLB World Series® game.

OK, I can try to make it sound like it is exciting, but honestly it is right there in excitement with the Silver Slugger Awards. But still, it is interesting. And it gives me a chance to use some more of those profile shots.

(Profile pictures courtesy of mlb.com)