Coming Down the Home Stretch--posted by Tony Garcia on 9/22/2006
With most of the playoff teams having just 10 games remaining now is a good time to look at the TradeSports markets.
The Dodgers and the Padres are locked in a battle for the lead. Currently there is 1/2 game seperate them. The Padres have 10 games left (and the lead), the Dodgers have 9 games left. The Giants are practically out of the race (10 games remaining). The Padres & Dodgers both have a magic number of 6 over San Francisco.
What is the market saying? 57.8% for Padres to win the division and 43.8% for the Dodgers. Both within the "toss-up" range, but leaning towards San Diego.
Really, this is almost a waste of time to even write. The Cardinals (11 games remaining) have a magic number of 5 over the Reds (10 games remaining) & the Astros (10 games remaining).
The market has the Cardinals at a 99.4% chance of taking the division.
NL WILD CARD
The only three teams in contention for the Wild Card are the Dodgers, the Padres and the Phillies (10 games remaining). As of this moment the Dodgers have a 1/2 game lead over the Phillies and a magic number of 10. The market is giving the edge to Philadelphia (52.0%) over Los Angeles (26.9%) and San Diego (18.0%).
So, using the current pricing the NL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Philadelphia vs St Louis
San Diego vs New York Mets
According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment is would look like this:
Los Angeles vs New York
San Diego vs St Louis
And to win the NL Pennant...
New York (40.5%)
St Louis (23.0%)
San Diego (13.2%)
Los Angeles (12.2%)
Another division where the time to report is more wasted than useful. Oakland (10 games remaining) has a 7 game lead and a magic number of 4. The market also reflects this certainty giving the Athletics a 99.3% chance to win the division.
This one is so close...it actually changed while I was getting the quotes (Twins down-ticked).
The Tigers (11 games remaining) hold a 1/2 game lead over the Twins (10 games remaining). That tranlates to a magic number of 10. The Tigers have been sliding and the Twins have been hot, but this may be neutralized by the Tigers easier schedule...marginally. (DET remaining: 7 vs KC, 3 vs Tor; MIN remaining 3 vs Bal, 4 vs KC, 4 vs Chg.)
The market also reflects this slight advantage giving Detroit a 54.2% chance to win the division compared to Minnesota's 46.2%.
AL WILD CARD
The Twins hold a 5 1/2 game lead over Chicago (9 games remaining) for the Wild Card. If between now & next Thursday Chicago can pick up 1 game on the Twins then they have a mathematical chance (requiring a sweep to end the season). The market does not think much of that happening. They have the Twins at a 55.5% chance to win the Wild Card, the White Sox are next on the list at 1.1%.
So, using the current pricing the AL Playoff picture is shaping up as follows:
Minnesota vs New York Yankees
Oakland vs Detroit
According to the actual records if the playoffs started right at this moment the pairings would be the same.
And to win the AL Pennant...
New York (44.0%)
WORLD SERIES WINNER
White Sox 0.9%