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Monday, October 09, 2006

Political Update from the investors

--posted by Tony Garcia on 10/09/2006

I have been following four contracts at TradeSports. Here is the update with 4 weeks left before the elections.

GOP to maintain US Senate Majority
Just before the Mark Foley scandal broke and dragging down the GOP-House contract the Senate contract began falling. The Senate contract is currently at 70%...a level it has not been since early December 2005. The good news is the chance of maintaining the Senate are still outside of the toss-up range. The bad news is there is a lot of resistance to the price going back above 73% while there is less support to keep it above 45%. There are several interpretations of this mostly summising that GOP control of the Senate is now regarded as a toss-up, but likely.

GOP to maintain US House Majority
The GOP in the House had been in a long downward spiral. They bottomed out at 40% right before the primaries in early September. At that point a quick climb to a 60% chance of winning came about...until Mark Foley. The caused a sudden drop in the investors confidence of the GOP keeping the US House...it fell to below 40% late last week. Currently it is a 42.8% chance of the GOP maintaining the majority.

Tim Pawlenty to win MN Governor
While riding at a 80+% chance of winning for 2 months Pawlenty's contracts plummetted suddenly. Now the contract is priced at the top end of the toss-up range (45%-65%). The good news is the lack of interest in this contract. That is part of the reason for the sudden drop in price. This means that the price can shoot back up just as quickly. Currently if you think Pawlenty will win the price to buy that contract is at 65%.

Mark Kennedy to win US Senate race
For a long time the news from the investors has not been good for Mark Kennedy. It remains that way. The chance for him winning has been at or under 10% for over a month. It has been under the range of "toss-up" for over six months. The now more discouraging part is the amount of interest in selling the contracts is growing.

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