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Monday, October 16, 2006

Another TradeSports update

--posted by Tony Garcia on 10/16/2006

A market update on the Kennedy-Klobuchar race. The last reporting last week showed the Kennedy contract trading at just under 10%. Today it is at 4.8%. Actually, if you think Kennedy is going to win and you want to buy a contract you would pay at .1%.

The Pawlenty-Hatch race is the same as the update posted 2 days ago.

The contract for the GOP maintaining US Senate majority seems to have stabalized at 65% - 70% though there is still very little price support and moderate price resistance. The simple translation of this is that one more thing (either good for the Dems or bad for the GOP) will send this back down to 'toss-up'.

The other big change from last week is the contract for the GOP maintaining US House majority. It continues to spiral downward and is currently at 35.4% chance of the GOP maintaining the majority. The good news is the amount of price support now is finally much stronger than the resistance. This could indicate the contract has found its price floor and the momentum can easily change back upwards.

With 3 weeks left until I capture the final numbers things are heating up in the market. Trade volumes are growing, bids & asks are growing...and the news will keep coming in.

********** UPDATE **********
There are some new contracts related to the US House party makeup that I will try to watch. They are contracts about the number of seats the Democrats will pick up. They are listed in 1/2 seats so there will be no "push" results (like point spreads in football).

The contracts are as follows:
Number of pickup (price/chance of occurring)
1/2 or more (95.0%)
4 1/2 or more (90.0%)
9 1/2 or more (75.0%)
14 1/2 or more (70.0%)...needed for majority to change
19 1/2 or more (50.0%)
24 1/2 or more (29.8%)
29 1/2 or more (20.0%)

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