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Monday, October 23, 2006

Political forcasting update

--posted by Tony Garcia on 10/23/2006

There is a new addition to the TradeSports list of contracts that apply to Minnesota. It is the 6th District race. There is only one offer on the Wetterling wins contract (set at 60%) and one bid on the Bachmann wins contract (40%). Once (if) this contract gets some activity I will report on it as well.

The news for the Republicans is looking bad at this point. The current chance given for the GOP holding the US House is 37.5%. There is a ton of price support at 35% and very little upward resistance, but since the beginning of October this contract took a nose dive to the 35%-38% range and has resided there since.

Republican chances of holding the Senate are at 69.0% and have been hovering there since the beginning of Oct. The bid/ask volume indicates confidence in this price. So, barring any further controversies for the GOP the Senate should be the silver lining.

Back in Minnesota the news is not so good. The contracts for Kennedy's chance are priced under 10% and there is little in the activity or the bid/ask to warrant believing the price will break out above 15%.

Pawlenty's race was shaping up to be the silver lining for MN GOP. That was before October. In October Pawlenty's contract fell from 'nearly unbeatable' to 'less than good'. The current contract is priced at 37.6%. The good news on this contract continues to be the lack of interest which means the price can suddenly change in large intervals (for the better or for the worse).

Current prices for the number of seats the Democrats will gain in the US House are as follows:
.5 seat...95.8%
4.5 seats...94.0%
9.5 seats...83.0%
14.5 seats...70.0% (needed for majority)
19.5 seats...56.8%
24.5 seats...35.7%
29.5 seats...25.0%

We'll see how it goes.

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